LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 12:52 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...515
FXUS64 KLIX 221752
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1252 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
Today's main area of sh/ts should develop around the same location
as yesterday, mainly along the coast near the Atchafalaya and west.
This should then spread and develop eastward through the morning
hours. All ingredients are still there for heavy rainfall and some
very isolated flooding issues and severe storms which will include
water/land spouts. As the day progresses, rainfal should decay
starting mid to late afternoon over the southern half of the area
and then the northern half by late afternoon into the evening so we
will temper the rainfall chances in that way. Tuesday should bring
an extra abundance of deep topical moisture from the southern gulf.
This area can be seen developing over the southern gulf this morning
as it surges northward and should be on our doorstep by daylight
Tuesday. No changes in any variables as everything should still be
in place to keep the fcast as is, just some days will have a few
more storms and some days not.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
This process of deep moisture and daily storms will continue through
this week but there is a hint of change in global models outside
this fcast 7 day limit. This may be due to the higher weighted
preferece to climo, but it does show this trough moving east, even
if it is just a few hundred miles. At the moment, this would just be
conjecture, but it is something to keep in mind to see if trends
start to hold this.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
Visible satellite showing scattered agitated cu developing across
southeast LA and southern MS at this hour. VCTS lines will
prevail through the afternoon hours at all terminals with
reduction in VIS/CIG most likely between 1800-2200 UTC. Should see
VCSH/TS wane over the area after 00 UTC with predominantly VFR
and light winds thereafter overnight. Same thing, different day
tomorrow it appears.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
Outside any storms, which will be plentiful especially during the
morning hours, winds and seas should be on the low side as winds
should remain 10kt or less. These conditions should repeat through
this week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 86 70 81 / 50 90 50 100
BTR 76 89 75 86 / 50 90 60 100
ASD 75 90 74 86 / 50 90 60 100
MSY 77 89 77 86 / 60 90 70 90
GPT 76 90 75 85 / 50 80 60 90
PQL 76 93 74 90 / 50 80 60 90
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TE
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 12:52 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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