ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 25, 1:54 PM EDT881
FXUS61 KILN 251754
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
154 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move through the region through today,
with high pressure and dry conditions settling in behind the
front for Friday and Saturday. However, warmer and more humid
air will return to the region Sunday through the middle of next
week, marking the beginning of an unsettled pattern for the
region, with several episodes of showers and storms expected.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few showers and storms will be possible today, primarily near
and south of the Ohio River closer to the frontal boundary. CAA
cu will develop and be prevalent across the region today north
of the boundary. High temperatures today will be warmer across
the south closer to the boundary as well. High temperatures are
expected to range from around 80 degree north of Interstate 70
to the upper 80s near and south of the Ohio River.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Drier and cooler conditions settle in tonight, although some
thick cirrus may linger near/S of the OH Rvr even late into the
overnight, helping keep temps a degree or two warmer than would
otherwise be the case. Temps will bottom out in the upper 50s
(near/N of I-70) to the lower to mid 60s (near/S of the OH Rvr).
Dry, tranquil, and pleasant conditions are on tap Friday amidst
bountiful sunshine and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Dewpoints
will dip into the mid 50s for many spots Friday afternoon,
offering a much-welcome reprieve from the muggy conditions of
recent.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Influence of surface high pressure over the northeast CONUS and Ohio
Valley remains strong Friday night with another clear night leading
to low temperatures in the upper 50 and lower 60s. Lower theta-e
(lower humidity) air persists over the region through Saturday, but
afternoon high temperatures modify back into the upper 80s and lower
90s.
Saturday night, a mid-level trough that has been meandering over the
south-central CONUS begins to slide northward up the western edge of
a mid-level ridge over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Deeper
moisture will gradually work northward with the first signs being an
increase in cloud cover Saturday evening. As the atmosphere
moistens, chances for showers increase from south to north
overnight. Expect coverage to expand during the afternoon hours on
Sunday with thunderstorms more likely during this more optimal
heating period. The trough and moisture results in lingering
activity overnight, although thunderstorm coverage likely decreases.
A similar pattern is forecast for Monday as the trough remains over
the Ohio Valley with an uptick in thunderstorm coverage during the
afternoon hours. Locally heavy downpours are possible both days with
a few downbursts possible with the strongest storms. Overall, severe
thunderstorm organization is not likely given the lack of shear.
This changes a bit on Tuesday as another shortwave trough descends
from the Northern Great Plains into the Great Lakes. The trough will
provide stronger northwesterly flow and more effective mid-level
lapse rates for stronger updrafts. While probabilities are still
low, can't rule out more organized convection on Tuesday depending
on where the best thermodynamics set up. The belt of enhanced
northwesterly flow remains on Wednesday, setting up an additional
opportunity for organized convection. Given the current
synoptic/mesoscale features, damaging winds would be the main threat
with these thunderstorms if they were to organize.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Although a brief shower cannot be ruled out near KCVG and KLUK,
expect most shower activity to develop south of the TAF sites
and therefore went with dry conditions. With cold front through
the area, CAA cu will be prevalent. An isolated wind gust will
be possible today, however with any gusts very isolated did not
include in the TAFs. Drier air will be moving into the region,
however some fog will be possible overnight at KLUK and KILN. Cu
will be present during the day on Friday as well.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 25, 1:54 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
