IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 23, 2:18 PM EDT228
FXUS63 KIWX 231818
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
218 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening.
- Better chances for rain and storms Wednesday ahead of and along a
cold front. Highest chances in the afternoon along and south of the
US 24 corridor.
- Warmer, drier weather is anticipated late week through the
weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024
It has been a very pleasant stretch of late July weather the past
few days! That trend continues today with just a slight chance (20%
or less) for an isolated, pop-up shower or storm this
afternoon/evening. Looking at visible satellite imagery, there is
also a plume of Canadian wildfire smoke over the Midwest from active
wildfires in the western US and Canada. This smoke should mainly
stay aloft today and tonight, but it will result in a hazy
appearance of the sky and potentially a colorful sunset tonight. No
air quality concerns will arise from any of the smoke, and it should
clear out of the area tomorrow.
A cold front currently positioned over southern Minnesota and
central Wisconsin will be the focus of the next 24 hours or so. This
weak cold front moves in from the northwest overnight into the day
on Wednesday, bringing the best chances all week for showers and
storms. CAMs currently show a round of showers and storms developing
ahead of the front between 03-09Z in NW IN and SW Lower MI, a lull
in any convection during the morning hours, and then redevelopment
of showers and storms in the afternoon further south (between the US
24 and the I-70 corridors in Indiana) after 18Z Wednesday. With only
1000 J/kg MLCAPE, marginal 0-6 km shear of 20-25 kts, and modest
low/mid level lapse rates around 5-6 C/km, severe weather is not
anticipated on Wednesday.
Late in the week, another area of high pressure settles in across
the Great Lakes region from Canada. Late week and through the
weekend will be dry and less humid. As upper level ridging sets up
across the eastern CONUS, temperatures will warm throughout the
weekend into the upper 80s to near 90.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024
A frontal zone draped across southern WI and northern IA will dip
southeast into KSBN tonight, and KFWA toward midday tomorrow.
Convective clusters along this front may survive into KSBN this
evening into the early overnight before weakening, with isolated
showers possible during the mid to late afternoon hours today. Post-
frontal cooling and saturation likely brings a MVFR stratocu deck
into KSBN toward daybreak tomorrow. VFR and mainly dry otherwise
through the TAF cycle.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 23, 2:18 PM EDT---------------
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