IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 1:41 AM EDT870
FXUS63 KIWX 220541
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
141 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-There are very low chances for afternoon showers and storms through
Tuesday but most locations will remain dry.
-Numerous storms are expected on Wednesday. Pockets of heavy rain
and gusty winds are possible.
-Highs will remain near 80 all week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024
Afternoon water vapor shows well-defined, mature shortwave spinning
over northern MO. This wave will continue to pinwheel into the Ohio
Valley tomorrow while opening up and becoming much more diffuse.
There has been a subtle increase in low level moisture today but
surface dewpoints are still struggling to get much above 60F and
this will likely continue into tomorrow given virtually no moisture
advection (actually very little low level flow of any kind).
Overnight lows drop near crossover temps of 60F/low 60s and some
patchy fog is possible once again given very light winds. Moisture
profiles appear too marginal to support widespread, dense fog
though, especially in light of abundant clouds. Highs tomorrow will
once again climb into the low 80s with a few more peaks of sun
possible. Models show a weakening of the strong subsidence/capping
inversion by tomorrow afternoon but serious questions remain if it
will be enough to allow convection given very weak forcing. Most
CAM's indicate a few very isolated showers mainly in our E/SE as a
weak vorticity shred lifts NE. Will therefore hold onto the slight
chance mention there but do expect vast majority of the area to
remain dry.
Precip chances increase for Tue afternoon as we finally get a little
better SW flow/moisture advection ahead of the moderate amplitude
trough digging into the Great Lakes. Our area remains split between
better forcing though with primary trough axis still well to the NW
and more potent shortwave riding along better moisture/instability
gradient to our south along the Ohio River. Worthy of another low
chance mention but definitely still a low coverage event.
Far better rain/storm chances arrive Wed with the passage of the
aforementioned trough and cold front. Good moisture pooling and CVA
forcing will support numerous showers and likely some pockets of
heavy rain. There is some risk for a few strong/severe storms given
projections of moderate CAPE. However...bulk shear along/ahead of
the front is weak and will limit the organization/longevity of any
strong updrafts that manage to develop.
Return to pleasant weather by the end of the week as Canadian high
pressure settles back into the Great Lakes yielding highs only
around 80F with low humidity (about as good as it gets for late
July).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024
VFR conditions outside of MVFR in patchy fog for both terminals
this morning. Confidence is low on the coverage of fog due to
the patchy nature. Did add the mention of light thundershowers
to KFWA between 18z and 23z today with a weak shortwave moving
into the area today, but again exact coverage/occurrence has
been tricky to nail down.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Andersen
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 1:41 AM EDT---------------
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