JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 24, 3:55 AM EDT934
FXUS63 KJKL 240755
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
355 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Afternoon shower and storm chances continue into next week, but
the lowest chances are on Friday and Saturday.
- Through Thursday, any areas that receive successive rounds of
heavy rainfall could experience instances of localized flooding.
- Highs will be about 5 degrees below normal to near normal (mid
80s) through Friday, before trending above normal this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2024
Early morning surface analysis has a wavering frontal boundary over
the CWA. This is continuing to keep PoP chances in place across the
area. Currently, showers are tracking northeast through the
southeastern portions of the area. THose showers will persist
through the morning with the potential for a few rumbles of thunder
as SBCAPE around 500 J/kg exists in this area.
While this boundary remains in place today and diurnal heating takes
place, showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this
afternoon. Those showers and storms will linger through the evening
before largely dissipating overnight Wednesday into Thursday. As the
large scale pattern hasn't changed, not expecting much in the way of
severe weather but can't rule a few SPS worthy storms this
afternoon. Also, PWs ranging from 1.50" to 1.90" are forecast this
afternoon and any efficient shower or storm could put down heavy
rain leading to localized hydro issues. Areas of valley fog will be
possible overnight Wednesday which will burn off early Thursday
morning.
A slight change in the pattern is expected for Thursday as a
positively tilted trough with a closed H5 circulation ejects
northeastward toward Ontario/Quebec. The vertically stacked
circulation will remain well north of the area but the surface low
will drag a cold front through the area Thursday into Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front;
however, since FROPA is expected to be during the evening hours with
a lack of widespread forcing, severe weather will be largely
limited. Again, high PWs are in place, which if a shower or storm is
efficient enough, it could put down some heavy rainfall leading to
localize flooding. Showers and storms will linger through the end of
the forecast period.
Overall, the forecast period will be highlighted with periods of
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be mostly seasonal with
temperatures in the mid to upper-80s and overnight lows in the upper-
60s to low-70s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 510 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2024
A positively tilted trough aligned from southeastern Canada down
through the middle Mississippi Valley will drift east into this
weekend, with upper level ridging temporarily working back in
across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. This will result in
lessening PoPs with a bit less humidity across eastern Kentucky.
Unfortunately, this will not last, as another trough will move in
from the west, allowing for rising dew points and an increasing
threat of mainly diurnally-driven convection once again into early
next week. The models have maintained decent agreement on the
overall long wave pattern, although detail differences become more
apparent after Saturday.
We start out with one more day of more widespread convection with
the influence of the upper level trough and a surface front
nearby. 500 mb heights will then be on the rise Friday into
Saturday, with high pressure building in from the eastern Great
Lakes to New England. This will allow for the dew points to dip
into the mid and upper 60s, providing some relief from the
humidity. Low level winds will then veer around to the south
southwest from Sunday onward, with dew points gradually increasing
each day. Highs will average in the mid to upper 80s, with lows
modifying from the low to mid 60s early in the weekend, to the
65 to 70 degree range by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2024
Currently all TAF sites are VFR and that will continue over the
next couple of hours before MVFR/IFR fog builds into all
terminals. Also, passing showers will bring VSBY and CIGS down to
MVFR/IFR through the overnight. Fog is forecast to burn off after
13Z but CIGS are expected to remain largely MVFR through the
remainder of the TAF period but mainly at all terminals minus
KSYM. Also, increased shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
during the day Wednesday that will persist through the remainder
of the TAF period. Aside from showers and storms bring gusty and
erratic winds, light and variable winds are forecast through the
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 24, 3:55 AM EDT---------------
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