PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 7:16 PM CDT992
FXUS63 KPAH 120016
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
716 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer this weekend with highs in the 80s on Sunday.
- Storms come back to start off the work week, severe chances
look limited.
- Dry during mid week with storms coming back again to end the
week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 716 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024
Updated aviation section for 00z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024
Conditions stay dry and warmer through the weekend. We're in
northwest flow aloft as an upper level trof moves through the Ohio
Valley and towards the northeast. Highs today are on track to top
out in the mid to upper 70s with modest northwest winds. Shortwave
ridging starts building aloft over the Plains.
Tomorrow the shortwave ridging aloft moves overhead and helps highs
to reach into the 80s. Our next system is an upper low and troughing
that moves into the Plains by tomorrow night. Thunderstorm chances
come back by Monday afternoon as the upper low/trof move toward the
Midwest. As far as severe parameters go MUCAPE looks to be around
500-1,000 J/kg, 0-6 km bulk shear is around 30 kts, and mid level
lapse rates are around 6.5-7 degC/km. This is not the strongest
signal for severe and is probably marginal at best.
Storms continue on Tuesday as the low/trof move overhead and then
brings a cold front through Tuesday night. Then we have a brief dry
period till maybe Friday when an upper level shortwave moves
through. NBM looks to bring PoPs back too early though, with chances
starting as early as Thursday afternoon. The Euro and the GFS both
keep Thursday dry. The Euro brings precip in on Friday morning
whereas the GFS brings precip in Thursday overnight. With regards to
severe parameters, MUCAPE looks to be around 1,000-1,500 J/kg, shear
around 20-30 kts, and mid level lapse rates around 6-6.5 degC/km.
Again, not the strongest and probably marginal at best.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 716 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light and
variable winds this evening and overnight will become southwest
at 5-10kts after 13z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...RST
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 11, 7:16 PM CDT---------------
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