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829 FXUS64 KMOB 212010AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL310 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Monday)Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024Active weather continues through the near term period as the overall synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged from the past couple of days. A weak and broad upper trough remains draped across the south central US providing our local region with a light southwesterly flow aloft. Weak, embedded shortwaves will continue to periodically move within this flow aloft through the period. At the surface, a frontal boundary remains stalled across the Deep South, extending from the Tennessee River Valley and across Mississippi. Additionally, a ridge axis associated with high pressure over the Atlantic continues to extend into the northern Gulf of Mexico, helping to provide us with a light and persistent onshore flow. The onshore flow, both aloft and at the surface, will continue to allow for deep moisture (PWATs greater than 2 inches) to advect into the local region. This, combined with forcing from the nearby surface front and shortwave energy aloft, will allow for numerous showers and storms to develop across the local area through the period. Convective coverage willlikely follow a typical diurnal pattern, with showers and storms developing this afternoon primarily over the interior before decreasing in coverage during the evening hours. Convection once again redevelops over the marine and coastal counties during the morning hours and eventually spreads inland during the afternoon hours tomorrow. Overall, not expecting any severe weather with this activity due to a lack of shear, although a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds to around 40 mph cannot beruled out. Some storms may also produce heavy rainfall due to high rain rates (given the deep moisture in place) which could be produce some localized flooding concerns, primarily over urban/poor drainage areas. Highs remain in the upper 80s due to the expected rainfall and extensive cloud cover present. Lows tonight will range from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70salong the coast. A Low Risk of rip currents continues through theperiod. /96 &&.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024The pattern will change very little through at least the middle ofthe week as our region will continue to be positioned between anupper level trough to our west and upper level ridging over thesouthwest Atlantic and eastern Gulf. Deep layer south tosouthwesterly flow will continue to usher in precipitable watervalues of 2 to 2.25 inches. Therefore, we will see a similarcoverage of storms as we have seen the past several days. Stormswill start off most numerous along the coast and offshore duringthe early morning hours with better storm coverage spreadinginland through the afternoon hours. Given the tropical airmass, the storms will be very efficient rain producers and localized minor flooding is possible. The upper ridging attempts to expand westward across our forecastarea by the end of the week into the weekend. This will likely help to reduce rain chances a little. However, a deep layer tropical airmass will remain in place and this will help spark scattered showers and storms in a more typical diurnal pattern. High temperatures will continue to be near or slightly belownormal due to rain chances and associated cloud cover. Lows willremain in the muggy 70s. 34/JFB&&.MARINE...Issued at 308 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024Locally higher winds and seas will remain a possibility near thunderstorms through next week. Conditions during the morning hours will also remain favorable for the formation of waterspouts.Outside of storms, no significant marine impacts are expected as a light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected to continue. /96&&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
