IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 2:59 AM EDT041
FXUS63 KIND 220659
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
259 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periods of isolated to scattered thunderstorms through much of
this week. Coverage is expected to be greatest during the
afternoon and evenings
- Locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat from storms
- Seasonable temperatures in the 80s through this weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024
An area of convection continues to move slowly northeast across
southeast Indiana and southwest Ohio with scattered lighter showers
further west across the region. Temperatures at 06Z were primarily
in the mid and upper 60s.
Through This Morning
Moisture has advected into the Ohio Valley in advance of a weakening
upper wave approaching from the west. A subtle convergence boundary
with deeper moisture pooling along it in tandem with the tail end of
an upper jet streak appear to be driving the ongoing convection over
far southeast portions of the forecast areas currently. Scattered
convection will persist over southeast Indiana over the next several
hours until the jet streak lifts out to the northeast after
daybreak. As for the light showers moving through the western
forecast area...those are being influenced by the upper wave to our
west and will linger for the next few hours.
Today and Tonight
The wave aloft will track across the region through this evening
before gradually becoming absorbed within a broader upper trough
that encompasses much of the eastern half of the country. Ample
moisture will advect into the Ohio Valley along and ahead of the
upper wave and combined with increasing instability by the afternoon
expect isolated to scattered convection to again develop for the
afternoon and early evening. Shear is virtually non existent today
with sluggish wind fields over the Ohio Valley. This will result in
disorganized convection that will struggle to maintain any level of
intensity. The biggest impact from any storms will be locally heavy
rainfall as slow moving convection feeds off a moist airmass to
produce briefly higher rainfall rates.
Scattered showers and storms will diminish this evening as upper
level flattens and slightly drier air expands back into the region
in the wake of the dissipating wave aloft. Much of tonight will be
dry as a result with potentially even a decrease in overall cloud
coverage as well. Will need to monitor for the possibility of fog
late tonight and through daybreak Tuesday with near calm winds and
higher dewpoints. Locations that receive any rain today will be
especially susceptible to fog formation towards daybreak Tuesday.
Temps...expect enough sunshine today to enable highs similar to
Sunday in the lower and mid 80s. Lows tonight will primarily be in
the mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024
An unsettled pattern is expected to continue through at least
midweek as guidance shows upper troughing persisting across the
eastern CONUS with gulf moisture advecting northward. This will lead
to increasing humidity and chances for precipitation. Guidance has
remained persistent in trending deeper moisture and stronger forcing
from an approaching wave south of the Ohio River on Tuesday. This
has resulted in lower chances for rain/storms. Scattered diurnal
convection is still expected though due to daytime heating over an
uncapped sufficiently moist environment and some synoptic forcing
from the aforementioned wave.
The best chance for precipitation will be late in the day Wednesday
once a deeper trough dives south helping to push a frontal boundary
across Indiana. Daytime heating combined with low-level convergence
should lead to scattered thunderstorm development. Weak wind shear
will likely limit thunderstorm organization or the potential for
strong storms. However, there is a low threat for downbursts as
forecast soundings show moderate destabilization supported by
dewpoints near 70F and DCAPE approaching 800-900 J/KG.
Confidence in the forecast for Thursday is lower due to diverging
model solutions regarding the timing of the aforementioned front and
how quickly dry air moves in behind it. If drier air quickly moves
in early Thursday quiet weather conditions would be expected during
the day. A slower frontal passage could potentially keep sufficient
PBL moisture in place for scattered showers or storms, especially in
the afternoon as destabilization from daytime heating occurs. The
best chance for showers or storms should be focused south of the I-
70 corridor.
The front will likely move out by Thursday night allowing for dry
conditions to return late this week. Expect surface high pressure to
build in providing quiet weather conditions for Friday and Saturday.
Look for temperatures to remain slightly below normal for much of
the extended period.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1234 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024
Impacts
- Isolated to scattered showers through daybreak...then developing
again in the afternoon
Discussion:
Pockets of showers have lifted into the Wabash Valley and will
continue moving northeast through the predawn hours. No restrictions
will accompany the showers with light and variable flow expected
through daybreak. May see visibility briefly dip in localized fog
near sunrise mainly at KLAF.
The presence of a weak upper wave over the Ohio Valley today will
promote widely scattered convection during the afternoon and
evening. Overall flow will remain stagnant and variable through
tonight. Ceilings will remain VFR through the forecast period.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Ryan
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 2:59 AM EDT---------------
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