ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 21, 6:49 AM EDT168
FXUS61 KILN 211049
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
649 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Weakening high pressure will remain across the region for one
more day. A series of weak disturbances will combine with
increasing moisture to bring the return of showers and
thunderstorms to the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weakening, retreating high over the Great Lakes will keep most
of the region dry. An inverted trough across Kentucky may
sharpen a bit as a weak disturbance moves across the region. And
this could provide enough focus for a few showers or storms
later this afternoon near and south of the Ohio River. Expect a
fair amount of high clouds through the day. But that should not
be enough to stop temperatures from warming to close to
persistence.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Short wave will pivot out of the mid Mississippi Valley and lift
up the Ohio Valley late tonight into Monday. Moisture will be
increasing ahead of this feature. So expect showers and at least
some thunderstorms to develop ahead of this. Seeing guidance
differences in where best chance of precipitation will occur,
especially overnight. While most models suggest that this will
be primarily limited to southern counties, which is where any
instability will be, the past few extended HRRR runs do spread
showers much further north. And this solution is supported by
the 00Z MPAS-HT and HN and to some extent the ARW runs. So have
included chance PoPs area wide tonight.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to push east across the region
during the first half of Monday in conjunction with the passage
of the short wave. There is potential for some destabilization
Monday afternoon in the wake of this feature, mainly across
western counties. Although any forcing at that point looks weak
and ill-defined, there is a sufficient possibility of diurnal
convection to include low chance PoPs.
Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s with highs on
Monday generally in the lower 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid-level shortwave will exit to the east Monday night, leaving
behind mostly dry conditions. However, an additional (but weak)
disturbance will move across to our south during the day on
Tuesday. This occurs as surface dewpoints rise into the middle
to upper 60s. With this being the case, we could see a few
isolated to scattered showers/storms, with the best chance near
and south of the Ohio River.
Low-level moisture remains elevated Wednesday and Thursday in the
southwest flow ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. However,
there's not much to force widespread shower/storm development on
Wednesday, so have kept PoPs in the chance category during this
time. By Thursday, the broader shortwave to our west will move
through the middle Ohio Valley, likely causing a weak cold front to
make it south to perhaps the vicinity of the Ohio-Kentucky border by
the afternoon. This front (and the preceding mid-level energy) will
provide the focus for showers and a few storms on Thursday.
Guidance still suggests drier weather beginning on Friday as
atmospheric moisture decreases in the wake of the departing mid-
level energy. In addition, surface high pressure will begin to build
into our CWA behind the southward-sagging cold front. This signal is
still somewhat uncertain, so will hold onto chance PoPs in the south
on Friday. Otherwise, the weekend should start on the dry side with
mostly clear skies and dewpoints back down into the lower 60s.
Temperatures during the period should be seasonal for late July.
Can't rule out heat indices lifting into the middle to upper 80s
ahead of the cold front on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR is forecast to continue. A 5-8kft scattered to broken deck
will occur across parts of the area through the period,
eventually extending across the entire area. There is a chance
of showers overnight, but the chance is too low to include in
the forecast at this point. Light winds will remain generally
from the northeast.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday through Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 21, 6:49 AM EDT---------------
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