PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 2:32 AM CDT922
FXUS63 KPAH 220732
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
232 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Daily chances of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue. The greatest risk is during the
afternoon and evening hours.
- Below normal temperatures with highs in the 80s and lows in
the 60s is forecast through the end of the week.
- A return to a more typical summertime pattern is possible
early next week with near normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
A broad upper level trough remains in place across the FA to start
off the week providing forcing for ascent for daily isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The greatest risk will be
during peak diurnal heating in the afternoon and evening hours.
While shear will once again be meager today, MLCAPE is progged by
the RAP13 to exceed 1500 J/kg across portions of western Kentucky,
along with 0-3km lapse rates between 7.0-7.5 C/km, and theta-e
difference around 20-25 degrees. Similar to yesterday, heavy
downpours and lightning will be the main hazards of concern. If a
updraft can maintain itself, a stray stronger storm once again would
not be out of the question, but would put the probability at 10-15
percent at best given the lack of synoptic support.
Afternoon pcpn and cloud cover will keep temps a bit below normal
through the week with maxTs in the 80s and minTs in the 60s.
However, a boundary lifts north on Tuesday with southerly return
flow. Moisture advection will mean higher humidity with dewpoints
rising more into 70s by Wednesday. A weak cold front eventually
moves through on Thursday, but results only in a slight decrease in
the humidity to end the week with dewpoints back in the 60s.
Uncertainty in the forecast increases over the weekend as model
ensembles diverge on how quickly heights rise over the FA. The GEFS
is much more progressive with a trough exiting the NE CONUS, which
would allow for an influx of deep layer moisture and additional pcpn
chances across the entire lower Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, the EPS
would support pcpn being more suppressed to the south with drier air
advecting in from the north. Regardless, there is a signal early
next week by the NAEFS/EPS ESAT for mean specific humidity to exceed
the 95th percentile. This would favor a more typical summertime
hot/humid airmass with temperatures returning to near normal. In
fact, the CFSv2 is hinting at the potential for a MCS regime to
setup again across the central CONUS, and will be something to watch
for in the long term.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024
SCT-BKN CIGS tonight with diurnal bases around 4-5kft on Monday.
Winds will be light. A few isolated showers or storms will be
possible Monday afternoon, mainly across western Kentucky. Did
include VCTS at OWB and EVV for a few hours. Otherwise
confidence isn't high enough to mention at other sites.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...AD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 2:32 AM CDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
