LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 6:41 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...985
FXUS63 KLMK 221041
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
641 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Isolated to scattered shower and storm chances are expected to
exist every day through the upcoming week.
* Slow movement of any shower or storm could result in locally
heavy rainfall amounts.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 551 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024
Convective complex continues to weaken and broaden as it slides ENE
across our CWA. Overall, rainfall rates have come down some with the
weakening, but still have to keep an eye on some spots where
training is occurring. Particularly, watching Madison up into Clark
county for the next hour or so. Expect gradual clearing from the
west through the morning hours as the complex pushes east and we get
into the subsident/stable wake of the upper vort. Still expect
redevelopment of isolated to scattered showers and storms this
afternoon into the evening once we re-destabilize.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024
Our region continues to be situated between an upper trough axis
just to our west and strong upper ridging over the western Atlantic
and SE CONUS. Deep Gulf moisture is being funneled around the
northern periphery of the upper ridge between these two features. As
a result, high PWATs are noted from the Red River Valley up through
the mid Atlantic and areas south.
Overnight convection has blossomed across southern KY thanks to a
nudge from a weak vort max embedded in the SW flow between the two
upper features. Given high PWATs up around 1.9", locally heavy
rainfall has occurred. Saw several healthy storms that had 2" per
rates, and pockets of 1-2" totals occurred. some locally higher
amounts up around 3" are probable in Barren and Adair counties as
well.
The convective cluster continues to push toward the I-75 corridor,
and will continue to monitor through the morning hours with any
necessary advisories or local Flash Flood Warnings. Expect the bulk
of this cluster to exit our E/NE CWA just after sunrise to as late
as mid morning. From there, we'll be in the subsident wake/stabilized
airmass from late morning through early afternoon. By mid to late
afternoon, looking for redevelopment of isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms. Forecast soundings for this afternoon and
evening look similar to yesterday with up to 1500 J/KG of ML CAPE,
but overall pretty weak deep layer shear. As a result, not expecting
severe potential but locally heavy rainfall will again be possible
with any slow moving stronger storm. Will have to keep an eye on any
storms training over some already "hot" spots we've developed across
the area thanks to the past 24 hours of pockets of heavy rain.
Keeping scattered pops in the forecast throughout today and tonight,
although there will certainly be lulls and dry periods during that
time. Highs today should be in the low and mid 80s. Lows tonight
drop down into the 65 to 70 degree range.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024
Much of the upcoming week should feature unsettled weather across
central Kentucky and southern Indiana, with daily shower and storm
chances expected from Tuesday through at least Thursday. For much of
the early-to-mid week time frame, upper level troughing will extend
from Hudson Bay southwestward into the southern Plains, with upper
ridging present across the western CONUS as well as over the western
Atlantic Ocean. As we head later into the week and into next
weekend, the ridge across the western CONUS will be pushed eastward
by an approaching trough moving through western and central Canada.
This should help to shift us into a warmer and slightly less
unsettled pattern for next weekend into early next week, although
exactly how much less unsettled things become is variable between
medium-range ensemble guidance.
At the surface, high pressure centers over central Ontario and a
dominant Bermuda High will surround a pressure trough which will
extend from the central Plains into southeastern Canada. As the
upper trough begins to lift out of the central CONUS Wednesday into
Thursday, one final shortwave should help to drop the pressure
trough into the Ohio Valley as a cold front during the day on
Thursday. Exactly how far this front makes it through the area
Thursday into Friday varies between models, with the GFS holding the
front farther north, while the ECMWF pushes the front into the
Tennessee Valley for Friday into the first part of the weekend.
From Tuesday through Thursday, ample moisture, with PW values
generally in excess of 1.5" and occasionally approaching 2", will
allow for persistent shower and storm chances. Upper level winds
look to be fairly weak, and the lack of any well-defined
disturbances or frontal boundaries (until Thursday) will limit storm
organization thanks to weak wind shear. As a result, the expectation
is that anyone could see a shower or storm at any time during the
mid-week period, though it will by no means be a washout. Where
showers and storms do form, slow storm motions and heavy rainfall
rates will introduce the potential for localized flooding issues.
Any stronger/taller storms will have the potential to produce gusty
winds and possibly some small hail; however, the severe potential
continues to look minimal given limited wind shear.
High temperatures Tuesday through Friday should be near to slightly
below normal, with readings being held down by increased cloud cover
and precipitation. Low temperatures will be seasonably mild, with
temperatures most nights bottoming out in the mid-60s to the lower
70s.
For Friday into next weekend, shower/storm chances are expected to
decrease as drier air tries to work in behind a cold front. However,
if the front is unable to push as far south (as in the GFS/GEFS
solutions), PoPs may need to be increased, especially across
northern Kentucky and southern Indiana. However, a farther south
progression of the cold front/dry air mass would result in PoPs
needing to be lowered across southern Kentucky. Temperatures should
gradually increase as ridging builds over the region, though highs
should only return to the upper 80s and lower 90s for this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024
Main cluster of showers and a few storms is slowly pushing ENE
across the area. Will keep some shower chances in through mid
morning. Conditions are expected to stay VFR outside of any showers
or storms, with only variable mid and upper clouds and light to calm
winds.
Expect a lull in activity from mid to late morning until mid
afternoon. Thereafter, scattered showers and storms are expected to
redevelop, and will pose a similar threat with brief heavy rainfall,
and perhaps some gusty winds. Handled this second group of showers
and storms with another PROB30 mention. There is potential for fog
to develop later tonight into Tuesday morning.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BJS
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 6:41 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
