MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 11:28 PM CST ...New AVIATION...597
FXUS64 KMOB 100528
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1128 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026
- A strong cold front pushes through the area on Thursday,
bringing much cooler temperatures. Marine winds will strengthen
behind the front along with building seas.
- A light freeze is possible well inland late Friday night and
Saturday night, roughly along and north of Highway 84.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026
A weakening upper low over Texas breaks down to an open wave then
is absorbed into a rather large upper trof that evolves over the
eastern half of the CONUS Wednesday into Thursday. This latter
feature will bring a strong cold front through the forecast area
mainly from Thursday morning into the early afternoon. A gradual
warming trend continues ahead of the approaching front along with
improving deep layer moisture, sufficient to allow for isolated to
scattered convection to develop over the southern portion of the
area on Wednesday. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s well
inland to near 50 at the coast then trend by Wednesday night to
range from the lower 50s inland to near 60 at the coast. Highs on
Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s. The cold
front ushers in much cooler and drier air, with lows by Friday
night ranging from the lower 30s well inland to the lower 40s at
the immediate coast. Lows Saturday night will be similar. This
continues to look to have the potential to bring the first light
freeze of the season to the northern portion of the area Friday
night and Saturday night, roughly along and north of Highway 84.
NBM probabilities for dropping below 32F are about 20-60% in this
portion Friday night and 20-70% Saturday night, with the highest
potential generally over northern Choctaw and northern Wilcox
counties. Highs on Friday will be mostly in the lower to mid 60s,
then highs on Saturday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Temperatures begin to moderate on Sunday, with highs in the lower
to mid 60s along with lows Sunday night ranging from the mid/upper
30s well inland to around 50 at the coast. A low risk of rip
currents is expected through Wednesday with a moderate risk for
Thursday. A low risk follows for Friday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026
VFR conditions will prevail for the entire period. A batch of upper
level clouds are pushing into the area, and accompanies by a few
spots of virga evident on radar, though cloud bases should remain
well above VFR categories. Otherwise, surface high pressure
overspreading the area will lead to tranquil flying conditions with
light and variable winds through Tuesday evening.
KL/31
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1058 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026
Light northerly to northeasterly winds will continue today through
early Tuesday, becoming very light and variable Tuesday afternoon
as a high pressure system moves over the Gulf waters. A light
northerly flow will resume by late Tuesday night shifting to light
westerly Wednesday afternoon. This westerly flow will increase to
moderate by late Wednesday night as a strong cold front
approaches from the north, followed by a moderate to strong
offshore flow Thursday and Friday in the wake of the cold front
with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves/seas respond reaching 2-3ft for
protected waters, 3-4ft for nearshore Gulf zones and 4-7 ft for
outer Gulf zones. Headlines expected as we approach the end of the
week. Winds and wave/seas taper going into next weekend.
[LIX/Schlotz]
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 74 50 77 52 / 0 0 0 10
Pensacola 74 57 75 59 / 0 0 0 10
Destin 74 58 74 59 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 73 43 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 74 44 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 71 43 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 75 44 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 11:28 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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