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474 FXUS64 KLIX 060518AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1118 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1116 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026- Cooler and much drier conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with the passage of a stronger cold front.&&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1116 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026The forecast through the weekend remains quiet, cool, and dry. Wednesday's front finally made it all the way through the area with drier and slightly cooler air filtering in. This led to a rather nice day yesterday with most of the area under completely clear skies. The sub-tropical jet is still streaming across northwestern Mexico through TX and into the Lower MS and TN Valley's which is streaming some thin cirrus across the region but much of that have remained and will likely remain north of the area with skies likely remain clear all night. In the mid lvls we have a rather amplified pattern across much of the CONUS. From west to east we have a s/w digging south into the 4 corners region, a ridge across the Rockies, much of the Plains, and into central Canada, while a deep closed low is over the Great Lakes with the trough axis down stretching south-southwest into Mid MS Valley while a s/w is already merging with the L/W trough over the southern Plains. However, the southern 3rd of the CONUS was still generally under zonal flow. At the sfc it is a little more messy with generally lower pressure over much of the eastern CONUS. A more defined area of low pressure over Quebec and a cold front stretching south into WV and then stalled from there south-southwest into the north-central Gulf and turning west into the west-central Gulf. There was cold front moving southeast through the Ohio Valley, just starting to enter the Lower MS Valley, and through TX. As for the forecast, Our s/w over the Souther Plains merging with the main trough will swing through the Lower MS Valley quickly today and this will well help to drive our re-inforcing front through the area today. That said the front is not well defined. We will quickly see winds shift out of the north ahead of it with drier air filtering in through the day. The colder air will be lagging well behind finally moving in overnight and through midday Saturday. This will keep things on the warmer side today with highs once again in the mid 70s to lower 80s yet the low RH values will keep things comfortable. As for the weekend cooler air finally moves in with h925 temps dropping 12 to 14 both Saturday and Sunday. This would mix down with highs generally in the lower to mid 70s. Saturday morning will be cooler thanks to dry air but Saturday night will be the cooler night. High pressure will be centered just off to the north with light winds, clear skies, and rather dry boundary layer conditions. This will likely lead to lows in the lower to mid 40s for all area along along and north of I-10/12 and in the upper 40s to mid 50s south of I-10 in SELA with similar temps Monday morning morning. /CAB/&&.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday night) Issued at 1116 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026The extended portion of the forecast doesn't provide a lot of hope for rain if you are looking for it. It also suggest temps will be near to slightly above normal. Medium range guidance hasn't had the greatest continuity or consistency for the last few days but overall they have continued to advertise a mostly dry forecast. With that not a lot of confidence to deviate from the latest NBM but will pay closer attention to late next week as the pattern would suggest a better chance of seeing our next cold front. As discussed yesterday the models have really struggled with how thy handle the cut-off low over the US/Mexico border. Typically we would look for something to kick it out to the northeast but it looks like thanks to the mid lvl jet streak associated with it slowly work around the southern half of the low and once it gets on the downstream side it starts to slowly lift across TX and towards the Lower MS Valley. This will provide lift across the region Monday and into Tuesday and generally you would think that maybe at least some light rain would be possible but we never see moisture recover so the forecast remains dry. This will merge with the northern stream developing L/W trough helping it to dig and amplify over the eastern CONUS for the 2nd half of the work week. This keeps the area dry and depending on how amplified this pattern gets you would expect to see a cold front move through but as of right now the guidance isn't quite showing that. /CAB/&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1116 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026VFR conditions expected over all terminals through the forecast.That said can not completely rule out shallow fog possibly impacting a few terminals just before sunrise but anything that develops would quickly mix out. Northerly winds will become prevailing and increase closer to 5 to 10 knots on Friday morning with a second frontal passage. /CAB/&&.MARINE...Issued at 1116 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026The weak cold front finally moved through the coastal waters before stalling just outside of the outer waters. Winds are generally light and variable and will remain that way until a reinforcing cold front moves through today where winds will quickly become offshore again and a little stronger, around 10 to 15 knots. Offshore winds will be strongest over the weekend with gusts upwards of 20 knots before gradually decreasing into next week as the area remains under the southeast flank of surface highpressure. /CAB/&&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...CABLONG TERM....CABAVIATION...CABMARINE...CAB
