CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 1:54 PM EST230
FXUS61 KCLE 101854
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
154 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast remains on track.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and somewhat mild weather is expected through the day on
Wednesday.
2) Cooler with unsettled weather returning late week. While snow may
mix in at times starting early Friday, impactful accumulations
remain rather unlikely.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Surface to mid level ridge will begin to break down on Wednesday
before the arrival of the next system moving into the eastern Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Ahead of this, anticipate for mild
and dry conditions to persist tonight into much of the day
Wednesday. Some rain showers may begin to arrive around sunset on
Wednesday evening ahead of the next system. Lows tonight will settle
in the mid 30s, low 30s across inland Northwest Pennsylvania. Highs
tomorrow rise into the mid to upper 50s.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Aforementioned surface low and deepening upper trough will push east
into the region Wednesday evening. Rain showers will begin to spread
west to east across the area around sunset Wednesday with coverage
increasing Wednesday night into Thursday as better upper level
support moves overhead. The surface low will exit to the east on
Thursday with the upper level trough persisting across the Great
Lakes region through the remainder of the week. By late Thursday
night/early Friday morning cooler air aloft, around -5 to -7C, will
move overhead and allow for precipitation to changeover to a
rain/snow mix. Best potential for some wet snowflakes mixing in will
remain across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania
early Friday morning and again Friday night into Saturday. Impactful
accumulations remain unlikely given warmer ground temperatures with
the best potential of measurable snow, albeit only a few tenths of
an inch, across the higher terrain of Northwest Pennsylvania.
Additionally, northerly to northwesterly winds increase through the
day on Thursday with wind gusts 25-30 MPH possible with localized
gusts to 35 MPH closer to the lakeshore Thursday afternoon and
evening. Northwesterly winds begin to decrease on Friday but it'll
remain breezy with gusts to 20-25 MPH possible.
A large area of high pressure will begin to build east into the
eastern CONUS late in the weekend and maintain control through early
next week. The high will start to dry out mid-levels Saturday into
Sunday, though light lake enhanced precipitation may continue into
at least part of the weekend. High temperatures Thursday through the
weekend will remain in the 40s with overnight lows falling to the
mid 20s to low 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions with mostly clear skies are expected through
tonight. Westerly winds of 7-12 knots expected through 23Z with
some gusts to 25 knots at ERI. Winds will be light tonight
trending southerly on Wednesday.
Outlook...Non-VFR will be likely with low ceilings and periods
of rain showers Wednesday night through Friday, then lingering
across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through the
weekend. Some wet snow showers may also be possible at the end
of the week and weekend along with gusty winds up to 35 mph.
&&
.MARINE...
Westerly to northwesterly winds 15-25 knots this afternoon and wave
heights 3-6 feet will gradually improve below small craft advisory
criteria this afternoon and evening from west to east. Light and
variable flow over the lake anticipated for Wednesday.
Next round of rough marine conditions will come Wednesday night
through Friday as northeast winds increase to 20-30 knots as a
strong low pressure system crosses south of Lake Erie across the
Lower Ohio Valley. The period of strongest winds over the lake
will occur Thursday afternoon and evening. Additional marine
headlines will be needed for this late week system. The
probabilities for gale force winds continue to decrease.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
LEZ145>147.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ148-
149.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...13
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 1:54 PM EST---------------
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