LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 5:30 PM CST ...New AVIATION...882
FXUS64 KLIX 042330
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
530 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 523 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
- Another weak front will move through Friday, followed by a
stronger front this weekend. Cooler and much drier conditions
are expected heading into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday night)
Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
A weak cold front will continue to push through coastal
Mississippi this afternoon before finally pulling east of the area
by this evening. A thin line of showers will accompany this
frontal passage as it moves through, but any rain activity will
remain light and last an hour or less. In the wake of the front,
increasing negative vorticity advection and subsidence aloft
associated with a building deep layer shortwave ridge axis will
allow skies to rapidly clear with the entire region seeing clear
skies by the early evening hours. This ridge axis will pass
directly over the area tomorrow with mostly clear skies and near
average temperatures expected. Lows will dip into the low to mid
50s north and west of Lake Pontchartrain and the low 60s south of
the lake for tonight, and highs will back into the upper 70s and
lower 80s for tomorrow afternoon. Humidity will be much lower, so
a very pleasant day can be expected.
As we move into Friday, a northern stream trough axis and another
reinforcing weak front will slide through the region. This system
will be moisture starved with PWATS average slightly below normal.
Thus, only some passing clouds and a few offshore showers are
expected with this next front. Temperatures will be largely the
same as those seen on Thursday. Finally, Friday night, a much
stronger surge of cold air advection will occur as the upper level
trough axis departs the region and another reinforcing stronger
front sweeps down from the north. Temperatures will once again
cool into the 50s Friday night, but will be below average as we
move into the weekend. Highs on Saturday will only warm into the
low to mid 70s and lows will fall into the low to mid 40s north of
I-10 and the upper 40s and lower 50s south of I-10 for Saturday
night. One concern that does increase over the weekend will a
slightly elevated fire threat as humidity values decrease toward
critical levels. Fortunately, winds will remain below critical
thresholds, helping to keep overall fire danger below any red flag
criteria.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
The long term period starts with the region residing under a more
progressive upper level synoptic pattern. At the surface a coastal
trough is forecast to develop over the natural baroclinic zone along
the Texas Coast. Aloft, a closed upper low is forecast to develop
and spread eastward. Globals are confident up to this point in time.
Beyond Sunday the GFS and ECM diverge a good bit.
The GFS is a bit more progressive with the upper low and trough
evolving a surface low over the Gulf, which would likely bring our
region some rainfall courtesy of isentropic upglide. The ECM is not
nearly as progressive and eventually flattens the surface trough
east of the lower TX Gulf Coast. In this solution no surface low
develops and no rainfall over our area, in fact it appears mostly
dry going into early next week. Will mention the possibility of
light stratiform rain early next week in the event the GFS is
correct, but given the discrepancies among the globals, we will keep
it on the lower side for now. As for temperatures, expect generally
around average for this time of year. But the GFS may be a tad
cooler due cloudiness and precip early next week. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
Generally VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals. Only real
chance of rain will be in the next hour for so at GPT and if there
were any, impacts would be minimal. There is low confidence on
some amount of patchy fog but it should generally be confined to
west of I-55 if any occurs. -BL
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
A weak cold front will continue to push through the waters this
afternoon and evening. Behind the front, winds will shift to the
northwest and north, but will remain light at 5 knots or less. A
reinforcing surge of cooler and drier air behind a secondary front
will allow offshore winds to increase to 10 to 15 knots Thursday
night into Friday. Northerly winds will further increase Friday
night into exercise caution range of 15 to 20 knots as another much
stronger front sweeps through the region. These stronger winds will
persist through the weekend and into early next week. Seas will
respond to the higher winds over the weekend and increase to 4 to 6
feet by Sunday night and Monday.
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...PG
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 5:30 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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