CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 17, 3:32 PM EDT743
FXUS61 KCLE 171932
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
332 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits far-southern portions of our region late this
afternoon as the front continues moving southeastward. Behind
the front, a ridge builds from the north-central United States
and vicinity before settling over the eastern Great Lakes and
Upper Ohio Valley this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cyclonic flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect the eastern
Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley, including our CWA, through
Thursday night. The cyclonic flow aloft is expected to shift
from W'erly to NW'erly late Thursday afternoon through evening
as a prominent mid/upper-level trough axis advances SE'ward
across our region. At the surface, a cold front in vicinity of a
New Castle, PA to Mount Vernon, OH line at 3:30 PM EDT continues
moving SE'ward and exits the rest of our CWA by this early
evening. Behind the front, a ridge associated with a cooler/less
humid air mass builds from the north-central United States and
vicinity. A lowering/strengthening subsidence inversion
accompanying the ridge will allow our sky to clear gradually
from northwest to southeast through the near-term period.
However, 850 mb temperatures cooling to near 9C to 10C over ~24C
Lake Erie and sufficient low-level moisture will allow lake-
effect stratocumuli to develop over and generally southeast of
Lake Erie late this evening through the mid-morning hours of
Thursday.
The aforementioned low-level cold/dry air advection regime will
contribute to cooler-than-average temperatures, overall.
Overnight lows tonight reach mainly the mid 50's to lower 60's
around daybreak Thursday. Highs are expected to reach the 70's
late Thursday afternoon. Overnight lows are forecast to reach
the lower 50's to lower 60's around daybreak Friday. The warmest
of these lows are expected over/very near Lake Erie.
Primarily fair weather is expected during the near-term period.
However, daytime heating of the relatively-humid boundary layer
ahead of and behind the cold front has allowed mixed layer CAPE
to build to weak to moderate magnitudes amidst moderate
effective bulk shear in our CWA. Multicell showers/thunderstorms
along the surface to roughly 850 mb portion of the cold front
will exit our region generally to the east through this early
evening. In addition, isolated multicell showers/thunderstorms
associated with a shortwave disturbance's attendant surface
trough axis/wind shift will overspread our northwest OH
counties from the west late this afternoon/early this evening.
This convection is expected to persist generally E'ward into
north-central and portions of northeast OH before dissipating
around sunset this evening, in response to boundary layer
stabilization via nocturnal cooling. Lastly, lake-effect
stratocumuli streaming generally SE'ward from Lake Erie may
produce rain showers during the predawn through mid-morning
hours of Thursday. These rain showers are expected to be light
since a lowering/strengthening subsidence inversion and low-
level dry air advection will likely limit lake-induced CAPE to
weak magnitudes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet and seasonable weather is expected for the short term period
as high pressure remains firmly in place. It may feel like late
Spring rather than mid-Summer at times with dew points in the 50s
under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be the coolest on Friday
night, with lows bottoming out in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly quiet weather will continue for the long term period as weak
surface high pressure remains in place, though chances for showers
and storms will percolate back into the region by Tuesday and
Wednesday as humidity increases ahead of a weak upper-level trough.
Not anticipating anything too organized on Tuesday and Wednesday as
mid and upper flow remain weak, though high atmospheric moisture
content and slow-moving storms could result in localized heavy rain.
Temperatures are expected to remain seasonable through the long term
period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
A cold front extends from roughly KYNG to KCMH. The front
continues moving southeastward and is expected to exit our
region by 20Z/Wed. A ridge builds behind the front and from the
north-central U.S. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms
are expected along and near the front, especially across the
southern-half of our region. Conditions continue to vary between
VFR and MVFR, with brief windows of IFR possible in moderate to
heavy rainfall. Showers/thunderstorms are expected to end from
northwest to southeast through this early evening.
Regional surface winds are expected to veer from westerly to
northwesterly through the TAF period and range from around 5 to
10 knots. A brief/slight increase in wind speeds is possible as
the cold front passes. Low/mid-level ceilings are expected to
scatter-out from northwest to southeast through this early
evening. However, scattered to broken lake-effect clouds with
bases near 3kft AGL are expected over and generally southeast of
Lake Erie late this evening through the mid-morning hours of
Thursday. Lake-effect clouds may produce very light rain.
Outlook...VFR expected Thursday afternoon through Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
A mainly quiet marine period is in store through the weekend with no
headlines anticipated. Only timeframe we'll need to monitor for
slightly higher winds/waves will be behind a cold front tonight into
Thursday, as winds shift towards the north, around 15 knots,
ushering in waves 2 to 4 feet. Following Thursday, surface high
pressure is expected to remain firmly in place across the region
through the weekend, with periods of light flow less than 10 knots
expected.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Jaszka
NEAR TERM...Jaszka
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Leonard
MARINE...Kahn
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 17, 3:32 PM EDT---------------
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