JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 3:13 PM EST577
FXUS63 KJKL 092013
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
313 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal high temperatures and seasonably chilly low
temperatures for valley locations remains into midweek.
- Rain chances return on Wednesday evening and linger into Friday
as a potent weather system crosses the area and then strengthens
to our east.
- The first snowflakes of the season could fall on Friday as much
colder air moves into eastern Kentucky on the back side of that
system.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 255 PM EST MON NOV 9 2026
As of mid afternoon, an upper level trough extended into the
northeastern Conus to east of the mid Atlantic coast. Further
west, northwest flow was in place across the Great Lakes to OH
Valley to Appalachians between this departing upper trough
and a shortwave ridge extending from the Lower OH Valley into the
Great Lakes. Further west, a shortwave trough extended from
Manitoba into the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. A broad upper
low was centered in the Southern Plains/TX area. Further upstream,
additional shortwaves were upstream of the shortwave trough
extending into the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley from Manitoba
and a shortwave trough was nearing the Pacific Northwest. At the
surface, a ridge of high pressure extended from the AR vicinity
into the OH and TN Valleys. An area of low pressure preceding the
trough extending into the Northern Plains/upper MS Valley was
working across western sections of Ontario with a cold front
trailing into the Central Plains. Locally skies were sunny across
eastern KY at present and mixing had allowed dewpoints to drop into
the 30s in the east to around 40 near Lake Cumberland, while
temperatures were mainly in the low to mid 60s.
This evening through Tuesday, the shortwave ridging moves across
the Great Lakes and sections of the OH Valley (including eastern
KY) and then into the Northeast and eventually the Atlantic.
Meanwhile, the upper level trough extending from Canada into the
Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley per the consensus of guidance
should move east across Ontario and into Quebec, crossing the
Great Lakes and entering the Northeast. To the south, broad
troughing is expected to evolve from Canada into sections of the
central to eastern Conus as additional shortwaves move southeast
across central Canada and toward Manitoba and Ontario. A period
of gradual/subtle height falls at 500 mb is anticipated across
eastern KY during that time and the upper level flow becomes more
westerly. Meanwhile, the shortwave trough currently near the west
coast of the Conus reaches portions of the northern to Central
Plains/Upper MS Valley while the current shortwave in the Southern
Plains treks to the OK/AR/TX border area vicinity. The surface
low preceding the shortwave trough moving across Canada and
sections of the Great Lakes to Northeast should reach the St
Lawrence Valley vicinity on Tuesday evening and then the
Maritimes on Tuesday night. The trailing wavy frontal zone
extends to the eastern Great Lakes to developing low pressure in
the Central Conus. This boundary will remain north of the OH
Valley with eastern KY remaining in the warm sector. Downstream of
ridging building over the western Conus, the downstream trough
should begin to sharpen over the Central Conus on Tuesday night as
it approaches the MS Valley region with the surface low nears the
mid MS Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, the sfc ridge of high pressure
becomes centered in the TN Valley to Southern to Central
Appalachians during the short term period.
The pattern will continue to favor ridge valley splits the next
couple of nights, especially for locations near/east of I-75 and to
the south of I-64. A milder day with temperatures at least 5 to
10 degrees above normal for highs is anticipated on Tuesday. The
column is expected to remain relatively dry, with little if any
cloud cover, though high and some mid level clouds are possible
particularly on Tuesday night. NBM deterministic dewpoints were
too high today compared to recent observations during peak mixing
with the Consshort closer to what was observed. Dewpoints were
nudged heavily toward the Consshort through Tuesday night,
particularly each afternoon.
Crossover temperatures/current dewpoints support lows again dipping
down well into the 30s, with some of the typical cold spots and
rural valleys away from bodies of water likely again near the
freezing mark. Patchy fog is also expected to develop along the
rivers as well as some of the larger creeks and area lakes around or
after midnight, with what fog that develops lifting and dissipating
by 9 AM to 10 AM EST. Temperatures trend milder by a few degrees (3
to 5) on Tuesday compared to today, with lows for Tuesday night
also likely a few degrees milder than what occurs tonight. Patchy
valley fog is also possible along rivers and larger creeks as
well as area lakes for Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM EST MON NOV 9 2026
The long term period will begin with significant changes in progress
over the eastern CONUS. Most of Wednesday won't seem much different
in terms of perceptible weather, but increasing clouds will be a
sign. A shortwave trough moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest
will advance to the Midwest by Wednesday morning, supporting a
developing surface low there. This shortwave will get picked up by a
larger trough dropping south out of Ontario, which then evolves into
a very deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS. This supports
further deepening of the surface low, with eventual coastal
development likely as it shifts east. Models are coming into better
agreement for the surface low to track by just our north through the
Ohio Valley on Wednesday night, with the system's cold front passing
through our area sometime around dawn on Thursday. Although it
doesn't look like significant gulf moisture will make it here ahead
of the system, the system's strength should overcome the lack of
moisture, with rain breaking out anyway as the low and its cold
front approach.
As the intense and still deepening low departs to the east, its
powerful circulation will pull much colder air southward over our
area, likely resulting in steady or falling temperatures during the
day Thursday. The initial deep moisture with the approach of the low
and cold front will also depart to the east, but shallower low level
moisture will linger in the upslope cold air advection, supporting
the potential for light precip at times, especially in the upslope
favored area of southeast KY. It may become cold enough for the
remaining rain to mix with or change to snow. The 12Z runs of the
GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement for cooling, now
indicating the lower atmosphere becoming marginally cold enough for
snow (1000-850mb thickness of ~1300) Friday morning. There is also
an interesting feature in the form a shortwave trough approaching
from the northwest Friday afternoon or evening with a possible
enhancement of deep moisture in the cold air, as well as a potential
moisture plume off of Lake Michigan. However, won't get too excited
over these features yet, since it is still four days out and easily
subject to change in subsequent runs. The official forecast at this
time will still keep any snow accumulations from the system very
light and mainly confined to the highest elevations near the VA
border.
Surface ridging eventually builds in from the west during the
weekend and then persists into Monday, as the deep upper trough also
pulls out to the east. This will eventually lead to clearing, but
the timing is uncertain. The official forecast may be a bit too fast
to break up clouds on Friday night and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON NOV 9 2026
A ridge of sfc high pressure will remain in place across the area
through the period. This will result in mainly VFR conditions
through the period. Valley fog could affect locations along the
larger creeks, rivers, and lakes, with MVFR to localized IFR or
worse conditions, though this is not expected to affect the TAF
sites. Winds will be light through the period averaging between
the southwest and west.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 3:13 PM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
