JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 8:00 AM EST160
FXUS63 KJKL 091300
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
800 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cool and dry air mass lingers through the start of the week.
- Frost is expected in valley locales early this morning, with
freezing temperatures possible in the most sheltered and shaded
hollows.
- Rain chances return for the area starting on Wednesday evening
through Friday morning accompanying a potent weather system that
will pass through the area and strengthen to our east.
- The first snowflakes of the season could fall on Friday as much
colder air moves into eastern Kentucky on the back side of that
system.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 759 AM EST MON NOV 9 2026
Have blended early morning T/Td obs into the forecast without any
substantive changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM EST MON NOV 9 2026
07Z sfc analysis shows a large area of high pressure covering
Kentucky and much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This high is
in firm control of our weather early this morning giving us
another night of cloud free skies, light winds, and fairly dry
dewpoints - near ideal conditions for radiational cooling. As a
result, a moderate ridge to valley temperature split has
developed. Although the satellite is currently clear, do expect
to see some thin trails of fog following the rivers - likely to
become locally dense - before dawn. This limited fog will set up
amid another night of widespread patchy frost away from those
bodies of water along with the potential for brief sub-freezing
temperatures in a few of the most sheltered valleys. Currently,
temperatures are down in the lower 30s in a few of those low
spots while many of the ridges have only managed to fall into the
mid 40s. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the mid 30s across
the area.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in pretty
good agreement aloft through the region during the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict broad and relatively deep
troughing off to the northeast of the area. This helps to maintain
steady northwest mid-level flow through Kentucky with most energy
packets remaining well off to the northeast of the JKL forecast
area - keeping sensible weather benign. Given the relatively
small model spread, most of the forecast grids came from
unadjusted NBM data this morning. However, did enhance the terrain
distinctions again tonight on account of the dry air in place and
nearby sfc high while incorporating the latest COOP MOS guidance.
Did also drop afternoon dewpoints and RH from the NBM numbers
today and Tuesday considering deeper mixing into some drier air
aloft.
Sensible weather will feature a nearly persistent forecast of
seasonally mild afternoons with plenty of sunshine. At night,
clear skies and radiational cooling will set the stage for
rather large ridge to valley temperature differences. Again, look
for narrow areas of dense river valley fog to form late at night -
dissipating shortly after dawn - along with more in the way of
frost for most of the valleys. Conditions will warrant another
Frost Advisory tonight (the current one runs out at 10 AM EST this
morning) should there be a decision to continue the growing
season. This may be a discussion during the daytime hours so will
hold off on issuing any additional headlines on this shift.
The main changes to the NBM starting point were to adjust hourly
temperatures tonight for enhanced terrain effects given the dry
air and sfc high in place. Did also tweak dewpoints and RH lower
for this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon due to the expectations
of deeper mixing into the drier air found just off the sfc.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM EST MON NOV 9 2026
The extended period starts Tuesday night with dry weather, conditions
that will persist through the better part of Wednesday. Synoptically,
split flow exists to open the period, with the northern jet stream
near the US-Canada border and the sub-tropical jet across Mexico and
the Gulf Coast. A strong upper-level cyclone will be parked off the
Pacific Northwest coast, while a ridge builds downstream over the
Rockies and Intermountain West. Multiple shortwaves are modeled
downstream of this ridge, embedded in the northern branch, the most
prominent over Manitoba, North Dakota, and Wyoming. Surface high
pressure will remain in the vicinity, centered across the Tennessee
and lower Mississippi valleys. Mostly clear skies and light winds
will favor strong nocturnal radiational cooling and decoupling.
Blended hi-res models with the NBM, then added local effects to
enhance realistic ridge-valley temperature splits, yielding sheltered
valley lows in the mid to upper 30s while thermal-belt ridges hover
in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Patchy frost will be possible in the
colder hollows, with river valley fog developing overnight.
As previously mentioned, a vigorous northern-stream shortwave diving
out of Manitoba into the Ohio Valley will carve out a deep, anomalous
longwave trough over the eastern third of the CONUS by mid-week.
Southwest flow ahead of this wave will advect warm air into eastern
Kentucky, boosting Wednesday afternoon highs into the mid to upper
60s (5 to 10 degrees above normal). An attendant cold front will
sweep across the Commonwealth late Wednesday night into Thursday,
bringing increasing cloud cover and scattered to widespread rain
showers. High temperatures Thursday - currently forecast in the mid
to upper 50s - may be too ambitious. A non-diurnal temperature curve
is increasingly likely, with highs achieved around or shortly after
daybreak followed by falling or steady temperatures through the
afternoon under moderate cold air advection.
The core of the upper trough will pivot just north of the region
Thursday into Friday, pushing 500 mb heights below the 5th
climatological percentile and ushering in a brisk Canadian air mass
on breezy northwest winds. Afternoon temperatures on Friday and
Saturday will struggle to climb out of the 40s, with overnight
readings tumbling into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Lingering
post-frontal and upslope showers could mix with or transition to
the first flurries of the season across the higher terrain of
southeast Kentucky Thursday night into Friday, and again Friday
night, before surface high pressure restores dry conditions for
next weekend on through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 759 AM EST MON NOV 9 2026
Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Late
night/early morning valley fog will bring localized IFR or worse
conditions, but it's not forecast to affect TAF sites.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 8:00 AM EST---------------
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