CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 6:54 AM EST ...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...815
FXUS61 KCLE 091154
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
654 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The probability of precipitation has increased a bit Thursday
through Saturday as models and ensembles slowly converge on a
solution, though details remain of lower confidence.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Outside of a few light showers into Northwest PA today, dry
and somewhat mild weather is expected through midweek.
2) Rain chances ramp up area-wide Wednesday night and Thursday.
Cooler air flows in for Friday and the weekend as a combination
of lingering wrap-around moisture and lake enhancement allows
shower chances to continue, especially from North Central and
Northeast OH into Northwest PA. While snow may mix in at times
starting Friday, impactful accumulations are rather unlikely.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cold front crossing the area early this morning will exit to
the southeast by sunrise. Chilly northwest flow is supporting
lake effect clouds into far Northeast OH and Northwest PA this
morning, with a few showers into PA where moisture is a bit
deeper. Locations west/southwest of roughly a Cleveland-Canton
line will see a mostly sunny day. With the low-level ridge axis
not really pushing into Northeast OH/Northwest PA until this
evening some lake effect clouds will continue flowing in for
much of the day, with continued minor shower chances in
Northwest PA. West-northwest winds will be a bit brisk,
especially through early this afternoon. There will be another
cold frontal passage on Tuesday, though it's expected to be a
dry frontal passage with little airmass change. Highs in the 50s
with lows in the 30s/40s (largely above freezing) are expected
through Wednesday. Tuesday will be the warm day, when portions
of the area will likely get into the 60s.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A notable pattern amplification is still on track for the end of
the week across the eastern U.S., bringing a return to more
notable precipitation chances and the chilliest airmass we've
seen so far this fall...and potentially some wet snowflakes.
Ridging will amplify from the eastern slope of the Rockies
towards Hudson Bay starting on Wednesday, with a shortwave
expected to round the amplifying ridge and drop into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. This
shortwave will bring an injection of polar (not arctic) air
into the eastern CONUS while interacting/phasing with another
wave in the sub-tropical jet Thursday into Friday. This will
lead to a large, deepening, slow-moving trough over the eastern
U.S. and southeastern Canada late week into the weekend. Ridging
over the North Atlantic and a closed low near Newfoundland,
often referred to as a -NAO, further supports a deep and slow-
moving trough over the east that will be slow to exit. At the
surface, a cold front is likely to cross the area late Wednesday
night or Thursday as developing low pressure tracks through the
Ohio Valley. This developing low pressure is expected to really
begin deepening near the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday night into
Friday. Chilly, moist cyclonic flow is expected to continue
behind the low beneath troughing aloft through Saturday and
into Sunday...there is improving agreement that surface ridging
will begin working in on Sunday but that the ridge axis won't
really move into the local area until Sunday night or Monday.
In terms of sensible weather, there are decent odds for rain
showers Wednesday night into Thursday as the front and
developing low move through the region. Behind this, an
inverted trough axis is likely to extend towards the Great Lakes
beneath the deepening upper-level trough into Friday. This will
keep synoptic precip going, especially across eastern portions
of the area. Synoptic precip is likely to shift east Friday
night into the weekend, though some amount of north-northwest
flow lake effect will continue and keep shower chances in the
forecast south-southeast of the lake until the surface ridge
axis works in Sunday night or Monday. Compared to prior runs,
agreement among the non-GFS operational models and ensembles,
including AI versions, has increased a bit. The GFS, with a much
stronger and slower surface low that amplifies west of the
Appalachians, is an outlier, with most other guidance coming
into better agreement on the general scenario laid out above,
with the low deepening well to our east but troughing
maintaining influence through the weekend. Still, the phasing
of shortwaves and development of low pressure is something
guidance struggles with, so will watch for any adjustments back
towards a more amplified solution that could increase QPF
Thursday and Friday over the next few cycles. There's also
improving agreement that some lake effect precip will continue
through the weekend, though the impression is that precip
should become more hit/miss and confined to areas downwind of
the lake this weekend as we gradually lose synoptic moisture.
Am not expecting rain amounts or wind gusts to be especially
impactful with this system though it will be wet, somewhat
blustery, and generally unpleasant. The main talking point has
been potential for some snow across the area, as it would be the
first of the season. It should be too warm for the synoptic
precip to mix with snow through most of Thursday night. 850mb
temperatures bottom out at -4 to -7C Friday and Saturday as
deeper cold works in, with moderation starting on Sunday.
Temperatures aloft can support snow by late Thursday night or
Friday, though the low-levels will be "warmer" given the lack of
arctic influence and modification from the still-mild Great
Lakes. Mainly rain is expected though wet snow or graupel may
mix in at times, mainly away from the lake and during the
overnight/morning hours. Notable accumulations are unlikely,
though will need to monitor the higher terrain for a low-
confidence light accumulation scenario if steadier precip/snow
can occur during an overnight or early morning period. In
general, highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s are likely late
week and into this weekend. The NBM low temperatures are
probably a bit too chilly Thursday and Friday nights, especially
farther east where clouds/precip will be more widespread.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
The main message for aviation weather with this morning's TAF
update will be VFR conditions expected for northern Ohio
through the next 24 hours. Lingering lake effect clouds will
continue around ERI for today with borderline MVFR to VFR
ceilings expected. Overcast to broken ceilings are also expected
for today at YNG but ceilings should be 3500 feet or higher.
Fair weather skies are expected for the rest of the area with
mostly clear conditions. Passing clouds coming off the lake will
bring partly cloudy skies for CLE and CAK eastward into NEOH
but also staying VFR today.
Winds will be from the west or west-northwest today 7 to 11
knots for most of the area. Around YNG and ERI, slightly higher
winds 10 to 15 knots will be expected this morning through the
afternoon, gusts up to 25 knots possible. Winds will shift
south- southwesterly 5 to 10 knots by this evening.
Outlook...Non-VFR will be likely with low stratus ceilings and
periods of rain showers Wednesday night through Saturday. Some
wet snow showers may also be possible late week along with gusty
winds up to 35 mph.
&&
.MARINE...
Brisk northwest winds across the lake early this morning are
expected to gradually shift west-southwest and subside today as
brief high pressure builds in. Rough conditions prompting Small
Craft Advisories are ongoing early this morning, though will
gradually improve from west to east through the day. Will
continue evaluating the end time of the advisories, as waves may
not fall below 4 feet before some of the current expirations.
Winds increase back to 20-25kt out of the southwest tonight
ahead of a cold front, with winds veering more west-northwest on
Tuesday behind the front. Another round of Small Craft
Advisories will be needed, though won't be issued until later
this afternoon given the ongoing headlines. The next round of
rough conditions will be Thursday and Friday, with brisk
northeast winds shifting north-northwest behind developing low
pressure. More Small Craft Advisories will be needed for this
period, with lower but non-zero potential for a marginal gale.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ142-
143.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ144-
145.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Sullivan
AVIATION...77
MARINE...Sullivan
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 6:54 AM EST ...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...---------------
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