LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 6:43 PM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...175
FXUS63 KLMK 092343
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
643 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* The first part of the workweek will be dry, with chilly mornings
in the 30s/low 40s and mild afternoons in the 60s.
* Rain chances return by late Wednesday into Thursday as a low
pressure system moves through the region, though it is not
expected to be a big rain maker.
* There is an outside chance for our first snow flurries of the
season if enough moisture sticks around the area late Thursday
into Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
Synoptic Overview:
Upper-air analysis indicates the region is sitting under a
quasi-zonal flow pattern aloft with a slight northwesterly flow
component. The polar jet extends through the Ohio Valley,
leaving diffuse high pressure at the surface with clear skies.
Dry and Mild through Tuesday:
The above pattern will persist through Tuesday, allowing for the
continuation of dry weather and seasonable (if not a bit above-
average) afternoon temperatures. Look for highs in the mid 60s
and overnight lows in the low 40s to upper 30s areawide.
Precipitation Chances Wednesday through Friday:
Ensembles depict general agreement in digging a series of
phasing shortwaves through the eastern CONUS on Wednesday.
Cluster analysis suggests the greatest divergence among ensemble
members is in the timing and speed of these impulses. The
associated surface low is progged to deepen as it transits the
Ohio Valley, dragging a well defined cold front to its south
along with it. The southerly return flow ahead of this front
will be brief and limited, resulting in only modest moisture
advection into the region. Supportive upper- level dynamics and
ample lift along the front provide high confidence in rain
chances (70-90%) across the forecast area, but the forecasted quick
pace of the front and lack of deep moisture will limit total
accumulations. For reference, NBM probabilities of receiving at
least 0.10 inches of QPF are between 50-75% across the area but
drop to less than 25% for half an inch. Rain chances increase
from west to east beginning Wednesday afternoon, are highest
Wednesday evening, and decrease Thursday morning. It's possible
some very light precipitation persists across eastern Kentucky
through the day Thursday in the vicinity of the low, but
additional accumulations appear minimal.
Furthermore, if enough moisture can stick around into Thursday
night or Friday morning, temperatures right around the freezing
mark could support a few non-accumulating flurries in this area.
With northerly winds and strong cold air advection on the back
side of the low, this occurrence is not uncommon. A lot of
pieces have to come together for this scenario to actually
manifest, though, so confidence remains limited at this time.
Much Colder Thursday into the Weekend:
As previously mentioned, a much colder airmass will take hold
behind the rain chances on Thursday as the polar jet sinks
southward over the eastern CONUS. Latest NBM percentile data
depict a clear dropoff in both high and low temperatures from
Wednesday to Thursday with small (3-4 degrees) interquartile
spreads. That is, there is high confidence in temperatures 10-15
degrees colder over a 24-hr period. Friday appears to be the
coldest day of the forecast period, with highs in the 40s and
overnight minimums in the upper 20s to low 30s. Ensemble
probabilities of temperatures at or below the freezing mark
range between 75-95% areawide Friday night into Saturday
morning.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026
VFR conditions will continue through the overnight and into the
afternoon tomorrow. Winds are light out of the SW to calm now and
will lessen even more overnight. Low chances of fog exist for HNB
(<20%), but this will be monitored under clear skies. Winds increase
out of the WSW tomorrow afternoon near 5-8 kts. Despite some passing
high clouds in the north in the afternoon, VFR conditions are still
expected.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...00
AVIATION...BKF
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 9, 6:43 PM EST ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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