PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 11:24 AM EST416
FXUS61 KPBZ 081624
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1124 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Wind advisory issued for eastern Tucker County, West Virginia
from 7pm tonight until 10am Monday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and ridgetops winds with a passing disturbance
tonight; warming trend through mid-week.
2) Rain and snow potential increase late-week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A passing disturbance is expected tonight as a shortwave rounds
an eastern trough. Mid-level ascent will invoke showers, with
the only chance of accumulations north of I-76. Areas with a
>30% chance of 0.1" only linger for northern Venango County and
Forest County With temperatures in the upper 30s / low 40s,
this will likely fall as rain, save a chance of graupel should
any showers be more robust.
This shortwave will enhance the synoptic wind gradient across
the region. With most areas expected to be below a low-to-mid
level inversion, winds will not be particularly strong, but for
eastern Tucker County, there is a chance that ridgetops may
briefly poke into the inversion, prompting the issuance of a
Wind Advisory from 7pm to 10am Monday. Most winds >45mph, if
any, are expected on peaks above 4kft, with chances in
Davis/Thomas of those same winds at a more marginal 40% to 60%.
After this shortwave passage, ridging and a temperature rises
are expected through mid-week. High temperatures will reach
5-10F above normal Tuesday into Wednesday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A turn to troughing is favored Wednesday into Thursday, though
ensemble clustering is still deviant on the trough depth. Some
take it from Quebec back to the Great Plains, while others take
into the upper midwest. This will in-tun, force where the
surface cyclogenesis response. By Thursday into Friday, most
scenarios fall into 3 camps:
1) Weak and eastern trough axis. These scenarios are
considerably drier with the trough mostly passing as a
shortwave, leading to little rain accumulation and no snow
accumulation. Temperatures are "warmer than the ensemble mean"
but highs still dip into the 40s late week.
2) Deeper, northeast trough axis. This brings more rain and even
some snow (most likely for high terrain).This is primarily
focused Thursday into Friday.
3) Deeper, midwest trough axis. This also bring more rain and
perhaps some snow, but peak accumulations are delayed by 18 to
24 hours, mostly on Friday into Saturday.
Scenarios 2/3 show the potential for "at least" advisory level
snow in the high terrain of West Virginia, with the terrain of
Pennsylvania more marginal. Chances of any snow accumulation in
the Pittsburgh metro are still low. There is only a 20% chance
of any accumulation, and a <5% chance of an inch.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lingering low-level stratus is fleeing eastwards as high
pressure and dry advection slide in from the west. Northern and
eastern ports may have a few more hours of MVFR after which,
widespread VFR is expected through the day Sunday. Mid-level
clouds filter in from the north ahead of a weak wave expected
overnight into Monday. WSWerly winds gust up to 25 knots today.
A passing cold front tonight into Monday brings a chance for
MVFR and rain north (most likely for DUJ/FKL/BVI).
Outlook...
High pressure settles back in later on Monday and is expected to
return VFR to area ports until our next chance for rain climbs
through the Ohio Valley on Thursday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for
WVZ514.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Milcarek
AVIATION...Shallenberger/AK
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 11:24 AM EST---------------
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