CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 6:44 AM EST100
FXUS61 KCLE 081144
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
644 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant forecast changes were made with this update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure will build in and turn milder early this week.
2) Colder temperatures and unsettled weather will return towards
the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure over the lower Ohio Valley will start to build
into the area today. Most of the cloud cover has eroded away
across northwest and north central Ohio. Lingering lake effect
clouds are still holding on to far NEOH and NWPA this morning.
High temperatures will be seasonable today in the middle to
upper 50s. A weak cold front will brush by to the northeast
tonight and bring a few scattered rain showers to far NEOH and
NWPA. Monday's high temperatures will be similar as today in the
lower to middle 50s. High pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern through mid week with high temperatures in the
middle 50s to lower 60s through Wednesday. Dry weather is
expected Monday through Wednesday afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Model guidance indicates the potential for an unsettled and
colder weather pattern by the end of this week. There are some
forecast model differences and uncertainty Thursday through
Saturday. The main message for the long term forecast period
will be that a deep upper level trough will develop and dig
across the Great Lakes and much of the eastern U.S. Thursday
through Saturday. A low pressure system and cold front will
sweep through the Ohio Valley into the New England region
Thursday into Friday. The track and strength of this system
will have an impact on what type of weather we see. Right now,
we will mention colder temperatures and the likely chance for
rain Wednesday night and Thursday, possibly mixed with some wet
snow at times Thursday night through Saturday. High temps will
be in the 40s and overnight temps in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions are observed and will mainly prevail through the
TAF period. Lingering lake effect clouds impacting ERI will
scatter out and exit to the east this morning. A dry cold
frontal passage is expected this evening. Lake effect clouds and
perhaps a few showers will settle into far Northeast OH and
Northwest PA overnight tonight into Monday. Any potential for
restrictions with the lake effect is too low to include in the
TAFs with this cycle. Southwest winds will increase to 10-20kt
with gusts up to 30kt today, shifting west-northwest tonight and
diminishing to 6-12kt behind the front. An exception is along
the lakeshore, including ERI and perhaps as far west as CLE
where slightly strong winds with gusts to 25kt are possible
behind the front through most of tonight.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely in rain showers and low ceilings
Wednesday night and Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories are in effect today through Monday
afternoon. A surface pressure gradient will increase today leading
to southwesterly winds 20 to 30 knots this afternoon. Wave
heights will subsequently build to 5-8 feet across the nearshore
waters and 8-10 feet in the open waters of the central and
eastern basins today. A weak cold front will swing southeastward
across the lake tonight into early Monday morning causing
winds to return from the northwest 20 to 25 knots. High
pressure build in and remain in control Monday with wind speeds
decreasing 10 to 20 knots and wave heights subsiding to 2 feet
or less by Monday night.
There will likely be a brief window Tuesday with southwesterly
winds increasing 20 to 25 knots and waves build to 3-6 feet.
Another set of Small Craft Advisories may be needed for the
central and eastern basins. A stronger low pressure may develop
and track across the Upper Ohio Valley later this week with
stronger winds and higher waves again on Lake Erie.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ142-
143.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LEZ144-145.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Monday for LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...77
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 6:44 AM EST---------------
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