PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 5:09 AM CST712
FXUS63 KPAH 081109
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
509 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread frost/freeze overnight tonight is expected to end
the growing season. Patchy fog is also possible near bodies of
water.
- Above normal temperatures are expected Monday through
Wednesday with highs reaching the upper 60s to near 70
degrees. The warming trend may also lead to more widespread
patchy fog Monday morning.
- Rain showers have increased to a 30-50% chance Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening as a cold blast filters into
the region. Sprinkles linger into Thursday with breezy and
chilly conditions, followed by a 40-60% chance of highs
struggling to reach above 50 degrees on Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1209 AM PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
Conditions ideal for radiational cooling are developing as
expected across the area tonight. Some sites are already below
freezing and those that aren't stand a very good chance of
making it below by sunrise with a heavy killing frost. The
freeze warning will remain in place til the morning and this
should be the last one necessary for the year as the growing
season should be definitively over by the time this back to back
heavy frost period ends. Ground fog is possible with soil
temperatures in the low 50s and residual warm water
temperatures.
The next item of interest presents on Wednesday. The guidance
suite is in considerably better agreement tonight on a fairly
broad upper trough digging in from the northwest and spinning up
a 1002-1004mb surface low that tracks across the northeastern
quarter of the region as a strong cold front storms in behind.
Rainfall looks increasingly likely with amounts on deterministic
and ensemble blends ranging from one-quarter to one-half inch.
The source airmass behind this front is in northern Canada where
it is currently around -10F so this may be the first pseudo-
arctic airmass of the cool season and Thursday and Friday at
least look likely to be at least a little below seasonal norms.
To add to matters northwest winds 10-20 mph are shown by most
available guidance and make sense given the synoptic situation,
so it will feel even colder.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026
Ground fog/freezing and fog near warm bodies of water will
remain a factor until after sunrise. At that point conditions
should quickly improve to VFR. A light west wind picks up later
this morning with winds becoming calm overnight. The outlook is
for VFR conditions overnight although patchy fog will be watched
as a possibility.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114.
IN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST /9 AM EST/ this morning for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 5:09 AM CST---------------
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