IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 6:30 PM EST345
FXUS63 KIWX 062330
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
630 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to numerous lake effect rain showers will continue
through tonight, mainly for areas west of Interstate 69 in
northern IN and southwest MI.
- Seasonably cool conditions continue into Saturday night
before a slow warming trends commences, with highs in the 60s
by Tuesday.
- Cooler temperatures return for the second half of the week.
- No significant precipitation expected Saturday through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026
Well defined upper low centered near Saginaw Bay (Lower MI) with
several weak disturbances/troughs rotating around the feature as it
drifts slowly ESE reaching western NY by 12Z Sat. Weakly convergent
flow along the eastern shores is keeping the main area of rain
showers from South Haven to South Bend. Instability and favorable
fetch peak into mid afternoon with combination of lowering inversion
heights, departing low and core of coldest air shifting east should
lead to a downward trend into tonight. Kept some lingering pops into
the overnight before ending. Temperatures tonight will drop into the
low to mid 30s, coldest outside of any lake effect cloud cover.
Low level WAA will commence on Saturday, but bulk of greatest
increase will occur in the afternoon, limiting impacts on afternoon
highs to the lower 50s. After one more cold night in the lower 30s,
high temps will begin to rebound a few degrees each day into Tuesday
with a return to above normal levels (low to mid 60s) by Tuesday.
A semi zonal upper flow will be interrupted by a northern stream
wave, with a front pushing into the area by Wednesday. The trough
will deepen into the second half of the week with additional waves
move through the flow. The main impact appears to be a return to
near or somewhat below normal temperatures to end the work week.
Some lake effect shower chances could arrive Thu/Fri, but overall
flow right now may favor portions of far NW Indiana into NE
Illinois.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026
Lake effect rain showers and stratus will continue through the
late evening as cool N/NW flow persists. Expect a general trend
toward MVFR ceilings overnight as the boundary layer slowly cools
but pockets of VFR will remain possible through the evening.
Rain ends around 06Z but MVFR ceilings will persist through
early Sat afternoon before winds back and dry air advection
scatters the low cloud deck.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 6:30 PM EST---------------
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