IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 12:17 PM EST452
FXUS63 KIWX 061717
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1217 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to numerous lake effect rain showers today into
tonight, mainly for areas west of Interstate 69 in northern IN
and southwest MI.
- Cool and breezy today into Saturday with highs near 50 degrees.
- Dry and warmer than average weather returns early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026
Somewhat more organized lake effect band trying to take shape
from northern St Joseph county in Indiana to Berrien county and
along the eastern shore of Lk MI. The upper level trough has
passed through with some slightly better convergence underway to
aid in development. Hi res models continue to waver some on
final resting position of the band and how far inland. Did make
a few changes on alignment of pops and increase to cat for areas
most likely to remain under the band. While a downward trend is
reflected later today, additional changes may be needed as there
continues to be indications of more waves dropping south and
continued development until both the flow, inversion heights and
RH become less favorable.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026
Areas of light rain and drizzle associated with a positively
tilted upper trough and cold front should exit eastern zones by
12z. Today into tonight then features a transition to lake
enhanced/effect rain showers thanks to ongoing cold advection
within deepening north-northwest flow. This occurs on the
backside of a potent vort lobe dropping southeast through the
central/eastern Great Lakes. More intense banding may set up for
a time in sw MI and nc IN later this morning through this
evening as the prevailing flow becomes parallel to the long axis
of Lake MI resulting in stronger frictional/thermal convergence
over eastern Lake MI. Localized rainfall amounts may exceed a
half inch in spots, best chances Berrien MI down into
LaPorte/South Bend/Plymouth. Drying and subsidence eventually
takes its toll on inversion heights by later tonight and
Saturday bringing an end to more organized LE rain. Cooler and
somewhat breezy early November wx otherwise today into Saturday.
Flow regime flattens out Sunday into early next week with more
active westerlies shifting off to the north-northeast. Return west-
southwest flow will usher in a milder pacific air mass with
sunshine and warm advection resulting in a return to above
normal temps. Some degree of upper troughing and CAA then
settles back in for the second half of next week with near
normal temps and non-zero rain shower chances.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026
Northwesterly flow will continue to produce light lake effect
rain showers to areas downstream from Lake Michigan. Therefore, keep
MVFR cigs through Saturday morning for KSBN. With the lake
effect showers remaining west of KFWA did keep the forecast dry,
although MVFR ceilings are forecast late tonight/early Saturday.
Winds will increase this afternoon with gusts around 20 kts
possible, than decrease again to around 10 kts or less overnight.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Cobb
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 12:17 PM EST---------------
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