LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 2:45 PM EST811
FXUS63 KLMK 051945
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
245 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A weak cold front passes through the area tomorrow, bringing low
clouds and little rain chances. Best chance for any drizzle or
light rain will be east of I-65.
* Areas of frost are expected Friday night, with freezing conditions
possible (20-30% chance) over southern Indiana. A more widespread
freeze is forecast Saturday night.
* Dry and seasonable weather expected for next week with daily highs
in the 60s and chilly nights in the 30s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
It is a very pleasant day across the region, with plenty of sunshine
and temps in the upper 60s and around 70. There is some breezy winds
though, with obs showing SW winds gusting up to 20-25 mph this
afternoon. These winds will relax by this evening as we lose our
mixing.
A weak cold front will slide through the area tomorrow, bringing low
stratus clouds but not much of a rain chance. This front will lack
any deep substantial moisture, though the SPC REFS 1-hour QPF
probability for 0.01" tomorrow is mainly 10-20% for central KY, and
closer to 30-40% for the Bluegrass region. Certainly not very high
probs for measurable precip tomorrow, but soundings support maybe
seeing some drizzle or very light rain for LEX and surrounding areas
in our east. Highs for tomorrow could be slightly tricky to nail
down due to the timing of the frontal passage, but generally expect
upper 50s to lower 60s tomorrow.
Cold air advection takes over in the wake of the front, and will
usher in cooler temps for the weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday
mornings will feature chances for frost or freeze, with Sunday
morning showing the greatest probs for a freeze with lows in the
upper 20s. There is high confidence in the need for frost/freeze
headlines over the weekend, but we are still a little too far out to
issue one on this forecast package. NBM probs for temps less than
32F are rather high for Sunday morning, with the entire area at
least 50%, but upwards of 85-90% for Lexington and the I-75
corridor.
The upper flow regime takes on a more zonal component into next
week, which keeps our weather dry and uneventful. Daily highs in the
60s expected next week, with chilly temps each morning. Next precip
chance may not come until next Thursday, but even that is a low
chance at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
VFR conditions are ongoing this afternoon across the region. A weak
cold front is expected to arrive tomorrow, though precip chances
remain below 20%. Biggest impact with this frontal passage will be
lowering cigs, which are forecast to drop to MVFR for all terminals
during this forecast period. Expect lowering cigs first at HNB by
09z tomorrow morning, followed by SDF, then LEX/BWG and then finally
at RGA by 16z. For the extended SDF forecast, should see VFR return
by tomorrow afternoon beyond 18z. Otherwise, sfc winds will switch
around from a SW flow today to a NW flow behind the front tomorrow.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 2:45 PM EST---------------
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