CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 12:47 PM EST326
FXUS61 KCLE 041747
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1247 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Chances of rain have trended up on Friday and will continue across
the snowbelt region of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania on
Saturday. Temperatures continue to trend cooler for Saturday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain will spread east across the area through this evening. Many
areas can expect a quarter to a half inch of rain with locally
higher amounts closer to Central Ohio.
2) Cooler temperatures and showers will arrive behind a front on
Friday and linger into Saturday across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Low pressure is located over the Upper Midwest with a cold front extending
south through the Mississippi Valley. Radar imagery shows a swath
of rain ahead of a deep upper level trough that will curl northeast
towards the Great Lakes Region today. Rain is forecast to reach
the I-75 corridor towards sunrise on the nose of a 45 knot low
level jet and expand east today. The deep moisture axis shifts
east with time with most areas receiving between a quarter and
half inch of rain. Locally higher rain amounts are focused
towards Central Ohio. Temperatures will be warmer in the east
today where most of the morning will be dry. Looking upstream a
broken S type radar signature in Indiana is starting to fall
apart as it moves northeast. Fortunately there is little to no
surface based instability so this trend is expected to continue
with no hazardous weather expected. We will see southerly
winds gusting to around 30 mph in Northwest Ohio as the gradient
tightens and low level jet arrives. Once the rain arrives fills
in the potential for stronger wind gusts will be reduced due to
stable boundary layer conditions. Have included just a slight
chance of thunderstorms in portions of Northwest and North
Central Ohio but so far not seeing any lightning upstream in
Indiana.
Rain will tend to exit to the east by Thursday morning as the dry
slot sets up overhead. Favorable mixing should help clear clouds out
and mix into drier air aloft. High temperatures are forecast to be
in the low 60s on Thursday with breezy southwest winds and clearing
skies.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
An upper level trough will dive south out of Canada
on Thursday and phase with the upper low over the Great Lakes
Region. Another trough will race northeast from the Four Corners
region on Thursday night and bring a plume of deeper moisture back
towards the local area. Showers will tend to expand from west to
east on Friday as a cold front wraps around the south side of the
upper level low. Showers will blossom across the area, especially
during the afternoon. Another dry-slot does wrap into the system on
Friday evening but wrap around moisture through 700mb is forecast to
return and be focused across the east half of Lake Erie on Saturday.
Temperatures on Friday will be in the 50s with the highest values in
the east ahead of the front. High temperatures on Saturday continue
to trend downward as we end up on the back side of the upper level
low. Temperatures at 850mb will be as low as -3C on Saturday morning
which should be sufficient for lake enhanced rain across the east
half of the forecast area. Did not add thunder but can not rule out
a few isolated thunderstorms coming off Lake Erie.
Precipitation is generally expected to be done by Sunday with a
gradual warming trend setting up for the early part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Mixed-bag of mainly VFR and MVFR with isolated pockets of IFR in
rain across the TAF sites this afternoon. More widespread IFR
ceilings are possible later this evening and overnight at
MFD/CAK/YNG, while low-end MVFR ceilings are expected elsewhere.
Brief IFR drops in rain will continue in widespread rain into
this evening, though the brief nature of the IFR drops precludes
mention. Conditions will gradually improve to MVFR or low-end
VFR by Thursday morning from west to east behind a cold front.
Winds are elevated out of the south to southeast this afternoon,
10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds will
shift towards the southwest behind a cold front later tonight,
10 to 12 knots. Periodic southwest gusts of 20 to 22 knots will
return late Thursday morning.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely with a cold front and rain showers
Friday through Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly winds will increase to 15-20 knots on the west half of
Lake Erie today. We could see a brief window of winds in the 20-25
knot range this evening but did not issue a Small Craft Advisory
given the offshore flow. Will let day shift take another look at
observational data before deciding if an Advisory is needed.
Southwesterly winds on Thursday may be slightly stronger and close
to Small Craft Advisory criteria again. A cold front pushes south
across Lake Erie on Friday with a compact trough setting up across
the eastern Great Lakes. We could see a chance of both waterspouts
and a few thunderstorms on Friday. A Small Craft Advisory will
likely be needed for most of Lake Erie Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
11-04 80(2003) 77(2015) 79(2003) 76(2015) 77(2003) 78(2015)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...04/Kahn
MARINE...10
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 12:47 PM EST---------------
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