JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 7:25 AM EST591
FXUS63 KJKL 021225 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
725 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A passing disturbance will bring continued chances for showers
this morning.
- A more significant system brings a higher potential for
widespread rain and higher rainfall totals during the middle of
the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 AM EST MON NOV 2 2026
A few adjustments to hourly pops were made based on radar trends
with the areas of light rain/showers mainly to increase pops over
the next couple of hours in the southeast. Adjustments were also
made to hourly temperatures and dewpoints based on recent
observation trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 445 AM EST MON NOV 2 2026
Early this morning, a shortwave trough was moving across the Great
Lakes to Lower OH Valley to Appalachians. An area of ridging
meanwhile extended from sections of the Pacific across portions of
Mexico and the Arklatex region to the Lower MS Valley. Further
west, an upper trough extended from near the Alberta and
Saskatchewan border into sections of the Rockies to the Four
Corners region to the Southwest Conus. Further west an upper ridge
extended into portions of the western Conus with an upper trough
upstream over the Pacific. Locally, the passing shortwave trough
has some moisture to work with, with PW on the order of 1 to 1.2
inches or around the 85th to 93rd percentile. However, low level
winds between high pressure centered near the Mid Atlantic coast
and a low pressure system in the Plains is resulting in downslope
southeasterly flow below 850 mb particularly over southeastern
portions of the area and reinforcing drier air in the low levels.
An area of showers continues to progress from west to east and
into eastern KY this morning with other lighter/more isolated
shower activity across the remainder of the area. Overnight
temperatures were on the mild side for early November, in the
upper 40s to mid 50s.
Today, the shortwave trough will continue to move to the east
this morning bringing continued chances for showers, though as
this wave moves to the east of eastern KY, shower chances wane
through the morning. The upper level ridging currently extending
into parts of the MS Valley will build into southeastern portions
of the Conus later today and tonight while the upper trough
progresses into the Plains/Central Conus. The associated sfc low
should track from the Plains to near western Lake Superior by late
tonight, with the trailing frontal zone crossing portions of the
Southern Plains/Texas. For Tuesday, the upper ridge briefly
builds across parts of the southeast into the mid Atlantic states
while an upper low evolves over the Central Conus with the mean
500 mb trough. The sfc frontal zone should near the MS Valley by
late Tuesday evening.
A decrease in cloud cover from south to north is anticipated
behind the departing shortwave by this evening and tonight,
though models do have some mid level moisture remaining into
tonight so some mid level clouds should linger. This should
support enough clearing or breaks in the low and mid level clouds
for a small to moderate magnitude ridge/valley split for the east
and southeast. Some valley fog is also possible following the
ongoing precipitation event. Ahead of the next system and as the
upper ridge builds to the east on Tuesday and warm advection,
highs should return to the 10 to 15 degree above normal range.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 535 AM EST MON NOV 2 2026
From Tuesday night through Wednesday, the upper level ridge axis
shifts to the Gulf to the Southeast U.S. Coast. Meanwhile the
upper trough axis remains west of eastern KY through Wednesday as
the upper level low within it evolves over portions of the MS
Valley. A lead shortwave trough rotating around it should reach
the lower OH Valley tonight and gradually move across the
Commonwealth through Wednesday evening/night. At the same time the
upper level low tracks toward the Great Lakes. The associated sfc
frontal zone should progress across the Commonwealth. Deep
southerly flow with this system will transport deep moisture into
eastern KY, with mean PW per the 00Z LREF remaining generally in
the 90th percentile or higher on Wednesday with the PW peaking
between the 95th and 99th percentile range during the afternoon
and evening. This system will have better forcing than the weekend
system as well and showers will be widespread and rainfall totals
greater. The current forecast storm total ranges from around 0.75
in the rain-shadowed areas downstream of the Pine/Black Mtn
vicinity to the 1 to 1.5 inch range for locations further west.
00Z LREF mean rainfall totals were in the 0.50 to 0.8 inch range
though higher end amounts for the 24 hour period ending at 7 AM
EST on Thursday though higher end amounts (95th percentile) were
in the 1 to 1.75 inch range per the 00Z LREF. WPC has maintained
a marginal risk of excessive rain during that period, though our
recent dry trend is a mitigating factor.
In addition to the showers and potential for some thunder, winds
aloft will increase as the system approaches and gusts in the
higher terrain near the VA border are likely to exceed NBM
deterministic values. Wind gusts in the highest terrain were
adjusted upward for Tuesday night to early Wednesday.
Chances for showers will decrease behind the midweek system, but
linger perhaps as late as Thursday night or early Friday. There
remains some uncertainty with the overall pattern to end the week,
but a generally drier period is currently anticipated from later
Friday through Saturday night with temperatures trending colder
under broad troughing over the central to eastern Conus. Some
frost or near freezing temperatures could also occur Friday night
and/or Saturday night. Another upper low may approach the mid MS
Valley/Lower OH Valley vicinity near or after the end of the
period and result in a return of unsettled weather.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EST MON NOV 2 2026
Mainly VFR or MVFR conditions were observed in eastern KY at
issuance time, with passing areas of showers/light rain. Mainly
VFR, with some MVFR reductions at times will linger during the
first 3 to 6 hours of the period as the light rain/showers
diminish from south to north between 12Z and 18Z. PROB30 groups
were used for a few hours initially for KIOB, KSYM, KJKL, and
KSJS where some sub VFR reductions are most probable in showers.
Once the showers diminish, low and especially mid level clouds
will linger for much of the rest of the period with VFR prevailing.
Some non TAF site valley locations could experience reductions
due to fog late in the period, but at this time, the TAF sites
are not expected to be affected.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 7:25 AM EST---------------
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