IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 12:55 AM EDT933
FXUS63 KIWX 300455
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1255 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler this weekend but still above-normal temperatures to
closeout the month of October.
- 20 to 40% chance of showers on Halloween, mainly west of the
I-69 corridor.
- Active weather still looks likely later for the second half
of the workweek next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
Cold frontal boundary currently draped from southwest to
northeast across the northwestern portions of the CWA. Current
radar imagery, 2PM EDT, does show some scattered rain showers
along it's spine and look for some increase in activity as the
afternoon goes on and the front moves southeastward. By this
evening the rain showers should become less likely as the
diurnal surface heating decreases. Not much in the form of
rainfall amounts is expected but a quick trace to a hundredth
or so will be the most likely outcome where the showers do
occur.
Friday will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy and cooler with a
more northerly surface flow in place behind the front and weak
synoptic ridging pushing through before a weak trough skirts the
western portions of the CWA on Saturday which may bring a few
rain showers to the area. Still thinking that any showers will
be light and should not really make a big impact on the
Halloween activities. A few showers look to linger into Sunday
but again amounts look very light especially with these
disturbances needing to moisten up the surface layer before any
precip can be realized at the surface.
The more impactful weather looks to occur next week, there is
still quite a bit of disagreement in the exact evolution and the
synoptic pattern will be fairly complicated with a split stream
with a southern and northern circulation. It does still appear
that both systems will phase late Wednesday through Thursday and
this looks to combine and develop a fairly deep trough
circulation over the Great Lakes region bringing much cooler air
associated with a strong cold front that looks to increase
chances of convection with possibly a strong to severe outcome.
This far out though and with the guidance still at odds this is
not a sure outcome but certainly something to watch in the
coming days when more details can be sorted out.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
A cold front has now exited the area which ultimately prompted a
brief period of marine-enhanced fog. This area of fog appears to
be drifting SSE based on satellite and surface observations.
Medium-high confidence this marine-modified air mass will
bypass KFWA. Flow veers to become NNE later this morning which
will disrupt the modified air mass. Otherwise today, increasing
high clouds as a disorganized area of low pressure lifts into
the Midwest. Rain is possible at KSBN just beyond this TAF
period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Brown
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 12:55 AM EDT---------------
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