MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 6:23 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...149
FXUS64 KMOB 302323
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
623 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
- A moderate risk of rip currents continues through tonight,
becoming a High Risk this weekend. Surf heights may increase up
to 4-6 feet by Sunday.
- Rain chances increase Saturday afternoon/evening, lasting into
Sunday. Few showers can be expected during trick or treating,
with chances steadily increasing overnight. Heavier rain totals
remain generally along the coast between 0.5 to 1", with
locally higher amounts possible.
- Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous
conditions for small craft through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Southwesterly flow aloft is expected to become established
throughout the day today as an upper ridge pushes into the western
Atlantic and a southern stream trough lifts out of Texas. As this
occurs, deep-layer moisture will steadily increase over the next
24-36 hours. Although this will help to bring some increased cloud
cover into the region today/tonight, subsidence from the nearby
ridge will help to keep the area dry through tonight. Highs today
will likely reach the upper 70s to low 80. Mild lows are expected
tonight due to the increase in moisture, with lows only dropping
into the low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s along the coast.
The pattern begins to change by Saturday, and especially into
Saturday night and Sunday as the aforementioned shortwave pushes
across the Deep South. PWATs by Saturday evening look to increase to
around 1.7-1.9 inches, which is generally around the 95th percentile
for this time of year. This increase in moisture, paired with weak
diffluence aloft and isentropic ascent overtop a cooler airmass
(brought on by a Cold Air Damming regime), will result in an
increase in rain chances for the weekend. Isolated to scattered
showers are expected to develop by as early as Saturday afternoon,
particularly for areas west of I-65. Coverage increases to
scattered to numerous and spreads eastward Saturday night into
Sunday morning as the shortwave moves overhead. Not anticipating
any severe weather due to very limited instability/poor lapse
rates, and a rather unfavorable wind profile. As far as rainfall,
general amounts are forecast to remain less than an inch, as
rainfall intensities should be on the lighter side, given the
overrunning nature of this system. That being said, 12z REFS 48hr
PMMs do have a few isolated bulls-eyes approaching the 2-3 inch
range. If a few embedded thunderstorms are able to develop, these
locally higher rainfall amounts may become realized in some
spots. Rain chances quickly decrease by late Sunday
afternoon and into the evening hours as the shortwave pushes to
our east.
Shortwave ridging briefly builds in for the Sunday night through
Tuesday morning time period, giving way to another brief period of
dry conditions. The next big story comes midweek as a northern
stream shortwave trough phases with a southern stream shortwave
trough over the Rockies, evolving into a longwave trough which
pushes eastwards throughout the week. As it moves into the central
US, guidance continues to suggest that the trough will amplify and
take on a more neutral or negative tilt as it lifts towards the
Appalachians. This type of synoptic pattern would allow for a
diffluent flow pattern aloft to spread across much of the southern
US. At the surface, cyclogenesis appears likely over the Northern
Plains by Monday. This low will push northeastward, eventually
occluding into the Great Lakes region/southern Canada by midweek.
Meanwhile, high pressure over the Appalachians should help to
maintain the Cold Air Damming regime across the eastern US
through at least Tuesday night. This high will eventually weaken
and push to the east in response to an eastward-marching cold
front associated with the occluding low. Further details are
rather uncertain at this time due to continued model
inconsistencies regarding speed, placement, and magnitude of these
synoptic features. That being said, what we do know is that rain
chances will likely increase for Tuesday night and into Wednesday
as the cold front approaches and passes through the area. It
should be noted that analog guidance does suggest that this type
of pattern could support the threat for severe weather across
portions of the southern US, so this is definitely something we
will be watching closely over the coming days. After the passage
of the front, a cooler and drier airmass filters into the area for
the remainder of the week.
A Moderate Risk of rip currents continues through tonight, becoming
a High Risk for this weekend and into early next week. In addition,
a High Surf Advisory will likely become necessary for Sunday into
Sunday night as surf heights increase to 4-6 feet. /96
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Expect VFR conditons for the area through the forecast period.
High to mid-level clouds will persist overnight into the day on
Saturday, with light/variable surface winds. Winds increase going
into the mid to late afternoon/evening hours, mainly for immediate coastal
terminals bearing 090 to 120. Can't rule out a few vicinity
showers nearing JKA, BFM and MOB late in the forecast period, but
will refrain from any major impacts at this time. KLG
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
A moderate easterly to northeasterly flow will continue through
tonight. Winds will gradually increase on Saturday, becoming strong
by Saturday night. Moderate to strong easterly flow is expected to
continue through Tuesday, with winds gradually decreasing and
turning onshore by mid-week. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed for our local Gulf zones Saturday evening through at least
Monday afternoon. Seas will build to 5-7 feet by Sunday and will
gradually decrease throughout the upcoming week. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 66 80 67 76 / 0 20 40 60
Pensacola 69 80 68 76 / 0 20 40 60
Destin 70 81 68 76 / 0 20 40 60
Evergreen 63 80 65 72 / 0 20 30 50
Waynesboro 62 80 64 74 / 0 40 50 60
Camden 62 76 63 69 / 0 30 40 50
Crestview 65 82 66 76 / 0 20 30 60
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through Tuesday
evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through Tuesday
evening for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 6:23 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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