JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 5:25 AM EDT423
FXUS63 KJKL 290925
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
525 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather with mild afternoons and cool nights will persist
through Saturday.
- A potential for rain will return by Sunday and last into the new
work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 431 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2026
Tranquil weather continues across eastern Kentucky this morning with
thermometers ranging from near 40F in the coldest hollows to the
lower to mid 50s on thermal belt ridges and only a few patches of
fog developing in the favored river valleys. The fair conditions
are courtesy of ~1030 mb surface high pressure centered south of
New England and Atlantic Canada, and a ridge axis extending
southwestward across the Southern Appalachians to the Western Gulf
Coast. Aloft, broad upper-level ridging/quasi-zonal flow is in
place over most of the Eastern CONUS with relative troughing over
the Western CONUS. A 500 hPa shortwave trough and an attendant
weak surface low are passing from Manitoba into Ontario within a
belt of westerlies along the Northern Tier of the US and southern
Canada.
Model agreement is good, showing that shortwave digging out a trough
over the Northeast CONUS during the short-term period.
Consequently, the aforementioned surface low will quickly race
east to a position off the coast of Labrador by Friday afternoon.
A trailing cold front will sag southward behind the low, reaching
the I-64 corridor around midday on Friday and slowly drifting
southward through the remainder of the short-term period. The
most notable change with this boundary will be the drier post-
frontal air mass (dew points in the 30s to near 40F vs. pre-
frontal 45 to 55F) once winds veer from southerly to north-
northeasterly. Even with the uptick in low-level moisture ahead
of the front, rising heights over the Lower Ohio Valley and
subsidence aloft will keep the front dry with just some shallow
clouds below 800 hPa.
In sensible terms, look for any river valley fog to burn off this
morning with diurnal heating. Temperatures will peak well above
normal - mainly in the mid 70s - under mostly sunny skies. For
tonight, light winds and mostly clear skies should allow for
valley fog formation once again in most of those favored spots. It
will be cool with lows ranging from the lower 40s in sheltered
valleys to the lower 50s on thermal belt ridges. For Friday,
patchy cloud cover will mix with sunshine, with a light northerly
breeze developing from north to south. It will again be mild
though, with highs ranging from 72F in the northeastern hills to
77F over the warmest portions of the Cumberland River Basin.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 524 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2026
At the start of the long term period, midlevel ridging will
dominate over the Southeast, and embedded within flow around the
ridge periphery, a shortwave trough will be initially located over
Oklahoma. This wave will translate northeastward with time,
working to flatten the ridge somewhat. Meanwhile, a closed low
will be located over the Pacific Northwest, with troughing over
the Pacific Coast. At the surface, an area of high pressure will
sit over the Great Lakes, with a lingering cold front draped
across the forecast area.
On Halloween, this cold front will initially sag south, although
this boundary will become less defined with time as a weak surface
low develops in the vicinity of western Kentucky by Saturday
afternoon, a response to the aforementioned shortwave as it
continues to lift to the northeast. Atmospheric moisture should
tick up around this time, with LREF mean PW values climbing into
the 0.8-1 in range, roughly the 80th percentile or higher compared
to climatology. Even so, this shortwave is expected to dampen
with time, and rain appears highly unlikely through Saturday
evening, with both deterministic and ensemble guidance favoring no
impacts from this weak system beyond increasing cloud cover.
Halloween's highs should range from the upper 60s to low 70s, with
overnight temperatures remaining mild (in the 50s) as extensive
clouds inhibit cooling. Rain chances do return to the forecast by
Sunday as a more defined shortwave approaches the area, with PoPs
peaking in the 40-50% range on Sunday evening into the overnight
hours. Depending on the timing of this wave, highs could be
substantially cooler than currently forecast, particularly if rain
begins earlier than anticipated. The 00z LREF shows around a 10
degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentile temperatures on
Sunday afternoon, demonstrating this high uncertainty. Given this
uncertainty, NBM output has been retained for now, with forecast
highs in the upper 60s in most locations, although temperatures
could trend warmer with a drier solution or cooler with a wetter
solution in subsequent forecasts.
Next week will feature a more active pattern. Although rain should
exit the area by Monday morning as the shortwave progresses
eastward, energy from the closed low originally over the Pacific
Northwest will phase with a secondary system lifting northeast
from the Pacific into the Southwest. The result will be a
substantial trough which will push east with time. Ridging will
briefly attempt to build back into the forecast area in the wake
of the previous shortwave, largely suppressing rain chances on
Monday, even as cloud cover lingers. By later in the day on
Tuesday, however, rain chances look to tick up yet again as this
system approaches. The exact trajectory of this system remains
highly uncertain, with substantial spread in the positioning and
timing of this feature. Regardless, with such a dynamic system,
rain appears likely at some point, even if PoPs are a bit broad
brushed due to this uncertainty for now.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2026
VFR conditions were present area-wide at the 06Z TAF issuance,
and aside from early morning river valley fog, will prevail
through the period. The fog will bring localized IFR or worse
conditions, but will not affect TAF sites. Winds will be light and
variable through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 5:25 AM EDT---------------
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