ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 17, 2:33 AM EDT216
FXUS61 KILN 170633
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
233 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the area
tonight and Wednesday. After the passage of a cold front on
Wednesday, drier and cooler conditions will move into the
region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
With a lack of significant forcing isolated/scattered
showers/thunderstorms which developed this afternoon have
dissipated with loss of heating.
A surface cold front across the Southern Great Lakes slips a
little south into ILN/s far northern counties toward sunrise.
This frontal boundary will offer lift with scattered thunderstorms
possible across ILN/s far northern counties overnight.
Focus shifts to a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) moving
across southern IN. This feature may provide forcing overnight
to offer an increase in convective coverage across the southern
counties as it tracks east thru the Ohio Valley. Have allowed
pops to increase to account for this threat. Regarding widespread
heavy rain - model guidance continues to trend south with the
axis of potentially heavy rain. In this moist airmass can not
rule out locally heavy rain but a widespread flood threat is not
anticipated. After collaboration with surrounding offices have
dropped the flood watch.
On the warm side of the front - expect mild lows generally in
the lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
Shower and thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing
Wednesday morning, especially across southern and eastern
portions of the CWA. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will
continue to be a threat from these storms. The chance of storms
will persist until a cold front crosses the CWA. So will
continue with a chance of showers and thunderstorms across much
of the CWA until the front moves southeast during the late
afternoon and evening. Drier air will start to move in behind
the front, especially for Wednesday night.
High temperatures Wednesday are expected to be in the lower to
mid 80s, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 50s north
to lower 60s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid level trough axis will be digging east through the remainder
of the Great Lakes, southeast Canada, and New England on Thursday.
Behind this trough, surface high pressure will be building southeast
into the region, bringing drier and cooler air. Highs will range
from 75 to 80. For Thursday night, the surface high will settle into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Mostly clear skies and light winds
will result in lows in the 50s.
Under mid level confluence, surface high pressure will continue to
extend over the area Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will modify
through this period with them trending closer to near normal by
Sunday.
As we head into the first part of next week, models agree that mid
level troughing will develop across the central Plains into the
middle Mississippi River Valley. This location, combined with the
development of mid level ridging off the mid Atlantic and southeast
U.S. coast, will increase moisture into the region as higher
dewpoints and pwats pump northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Thus,
shower and thunderstorm chances will increase during this period. It
will be seasonably warm and humid with highs in the 80s and lows in
the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There will be some isolated to scattered shower activity around
this morning. Handled this with just a vcsh mention. There will
also be some lower cigs in the MVFR to IFR range that move into
portions of the region for a few hours this morning. Going into
the day today a cold front will approach and then move through.
This will allow for showers and thunderstorms at times until the
passage of this feature. There will also be a wind shift with
the front.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 17, 2:33 AM EDT---------------
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