IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 2:26 AM EDT541
FXUS63 KIWX 280626
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
226 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry today with highs in the mid 70s.
- Very light rain is possible on Thursday followed by slightly
cooler temperatures.
- More rain is possible over the weekend with the best chances
on Sunday but forecast confidence for this period remains low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Another warm and tranquil day as ridge rebuilds behind departing
shortwave responsible for current mid/high clouds and virga.
These clouds will scatter during the day and highs climb into
the mid 70s for most given some light SW flow/WAA. Mild
overnight lows expected given increasing SW gradient and clouds
ahead of the next cold front. Only mid 50s expected in our NW
zones. As previously mentioned, this cold front will feature a
moderate prefrontal theta-e surge (thanks to a 30-40 kt LLJ)
capable of finally moistening very dry/stable airmass that has
been in place for quite some time. However, better mid and upper
level dynamics remain displaced well to our north. Decent
1000-850mb convergence within a moderate theta-e ridge will be
enough to spark a narrow line of light showers on Thu but total
rain amounts will be very light (a few hundredths at best). The
best chances will be in our northwest where better moisture and
forcing reside. Areas south of US-24 likely remain dry. No
thunderstorms expected given virtually no instability so overall
no impacts anticipated. Postfrontal airmass is cooler but not
particularly cold given it is almost Halloween. Lows Thu night
dip near 40F with highs on Fri in the 60s (still above normal).
Forecast details for the weekend and early next week remain
uncertain. A subtropical Pacific jet streak/shortwave lifts into
the region in piecemeal fashion over the weekend followed by
the eastward ejection (in some fashion) of a Pacific Northwest
upper low. This is a convoluted mid/upper level pattern
evolution that models are still struggling with immensely. The
initial shortwave and theta-e surge could bring some light rain
to our W/NW counties early Sat but CVA and moisture advection
are both very meager. Any rain will be light and it could easily
remain entirely dry. These low chance PoP's extend into the
early evening. Some light sprinkles can't be entirely ruled out
for Sat evening activities but overall impacts should be
minimal. Better rain chances arrive on Sun but even this is no
slam dunk. Several guidance sources suggest the main trough and
better moisture pass just to our S/SE. Attention then turns to
large upper low migrating across the country. Models continue to
show an incredibly high degree of spread with how this upper
low evolves. Expect we will get some more widespread/moderate
rain out of it at some point but timing is very up in the air.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Midlevel shortwave supporting widespread 12 kft ceilings this
morning but low levels remain very dry and VFR conditions will
persist. Latest guidance shows a much lower chance for fog
development. High clouds briefly scatter later today but return
early Thursday morning as a weak cold front approaches the
region. No aviation impact anticipated.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 2:26 AM EDT---------------
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