MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 6:18 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...177
FXUS64 KMOB 281118
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
618 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
- Moderate to strong northeasterly winds may occasionally create
hazardous conditions for small craft mainly well offshore from
Wednesday through Saturday.
- A Moderate to High Risk of rip currents is expected for beach
areas the rest of the week through the weekend.
- Rain returns to the area this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
High pressure continues to dominate the sensible weather pattern
across the region. This will lead to mostly clear skies and highs
warming into the mid 70s to lower 80s. No changes were necessary
to the previous forecast. /73
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Through Friday night...an upper low over the Caribbean slowly opens
before moving off Friday into the weekend. An upper ridge over the
Gulf builds north over the Southeast, while taking a bit of an
eastward jog as a series of shortwave troughs climb the west side of
the building ridge. A surface low that has developed over the
Caribbean meanders west to over the southern Gulf, bringing a stronger,
more easterly flow to the northern Gulf coast as the pressure gradient
tightens over the northern Gulf. Atlantic moisture begins to move
back over the Gulf coast and northern Gulf beginning Thursday with
the eastward shift in flow. Most guidance is advertising the best
moisture return south of the northern Gulf coast through Friday, though.
Temperatures remain above seasonal norms through the rest of the
week, with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s expected.
Low temperatures rise with the increase in moisture helping to
counterbalance the current good overnight radiational cooling. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 40s north of Highway 84 tonight rise
into the upper 50s north of Highway 84 to upper 60s closer to the
coast by Friday night.
Saturday through Tuesday...A shortwave trough moves over the
Southeast, bringing rain back to the region for the weekend, with
better moisture return over the Southeast over the weekend.
Instability, shear, and upper dynamics is modest at this time, so
any chance of strong to severe storms is low. A closed low is
advertised developing and moving over the Plains early in the
coming week, though path and speed is inconsistent, and with that,
its effects on the forecast area in the coming week. Ahead of
this second system, temperatures see a bit of a downward trend,
but otherwise remain at or above seasonal norms.
Taking a look at the Rip Risk on area beaches, a Moderate Risk of
rip currents is maintained through the rest of the week, with an
uptick to High in the coming weekend as winds over the Gulf take a
more southeasterly shift, increasing swell making it to area beaches.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Winds may
briefly increase to around 10kts this afternoon before diminishing
after sunset. /73
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Light to moderate northeasterly winds prevails through
Thursday, occasionally becoming stronger well offshore. A moderate
to occasionally strong and mostly easterly flow follows for Friday
through Saturday.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 80 52 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 80 61 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 80 63 82 66 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 78 48 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 80 45 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 76 45 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 80 54 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 6:18 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...---------------
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