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647 FXUS64 KLIX 270508AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1208 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1017 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026- Elevated fire danger will continue through at least Thursday. The ongoing drought conditions and dry fuels combined with low humidity and light to moderate winds will lead to potential for some fire spread. Residents should obey all burn bans in place and exercise extreme caution with any open flames outdoors even in areas that do not currently have burn bans in place.- Although winds will ease today into early Wednesday, wind speeds are expected rise once again over most of the coastal waters causing additional small craft advisories later this week. &&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Friday night)Issued at 1017 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026October will come to and end and things will change in the weatherdepartment. This looks to be right on que as a system getsorganized by Friday over TX and moves NE bringing some sh/ts overour area eventually. We will speak more to that in the extended.The short term is where this will all come together to bring therain to the area. What will eventually occur will include TropicalStorm Vance in the eastPAC near Mexico. First, this tropicalsystem is already getting some upper shear, but this willdramatically increase over the coming days to the point that itgets ripped to shreds(not a met term). The upper winds at about130W over the central Pacific will reach the west coast of Mexicoaround the Baha area and the little tropical storm will be nomatch for this. These strong winds will also cause a buckel(shortwave) in the long wave trough that will move into TX by Thu intoFri. The moisture from Vance will be transported in this flow andbrought NEward. Models are currently all over the place with thissince we don't have a good sample of all the features that willeventually cause this to occur. But the overall picture isundoubtfully in tact in that there will be a sfc low form from thelong wave trough and short wave interaction and this low will kickout to the NE. The moisture will not be lacking at any level as wemove into Fri night as the system is still over TX but is movingthis way. Winds will also begin to rise once again by Wed as a sfc low near FL interacts with the large high to its north. Easterly to NE winds will remain, but will rise a bit by Wed and Thu. This is not normally an issue, but we are moving into a king tide cycle(adds to high tide levels and takes away at low tide levels during a spring tide cycle), so this could cause some minorcoastal flooding possibly starting as early as Wed night into Thuat high tide times. Quick general explanation, spring tides occurtwice a month and is when the sun, earth and moon are in alignment. A king tide is a spring tide but with the additional component of when the moons orbit brings it closest to earth, which only occur 3 to 4 times a year.&&.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Monday night) Issued at 1017 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026Going into Halloween weekend overall the pattern looks to be slightly wetter to start the period. Aloft an H5 trough/vort will be moving over the region. This feature along with a weak surface trough along the I10 corridor and some added moisture from what is currently TS Vance in the Eastern Pacific will help generate showers and a few thunderstorms across the region. Globals are not in agreement in terms of QPF with GFS having the higher signal over the ECMWF. That said, ECM is not dry so we will keep middle of the road POPs in for Saturday through early Sunday before the upper trough lifts out of the region. Going into Monday things look to dry out with a bit more zonal flow aloft. That said, looking upstream a broader and more robust upper level low develops over the high plains east of the Rockies.Impacts locally would likely be felt just beyond the scope of this period, but we will end the period watching what looks to be a strong cold front moving into the region early to midweek next week with additional POPs and a likely cool down behind. Speaking of temps, this week will remain steady with most locations warming into the lower to mid 80s during the afternoon. As more surface moisture returns to the region, expect temperatures overnight to be a little warmer with the region only dropping into the 60s this weekend and early next week. (Frye)&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1017 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026VFR through this cycle.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1017 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026A strong surface high will remain centered over the Mid-Atlantic region today. At the same time, a broad low pressure system will persist over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. This will maintain a tighter pressure gradient across the northern Gulf with easterly winds remaining elevated across most of the coastal waters through the end of the week. A Small Craft Advisory continues for portions of the open Gulf waters as elevated easterly winds of around 20 knots persist. These headlines will likely remain up through the end of the week as the strong easterly winds of 20 to 25 knots and seas of 5 to 8 feet continue.&&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ551-553-554- 570-572-575-577.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ553-554-570- 572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....RDFAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
