IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 6:06 AM EDT975
FXUS63 KIND 281006
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
606 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and unseasonably high temperatures to continue through Friday,
afternoon highs in the 70s.
- A wetter pattern may take shape for the Halloween weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure over
New England, maintaining control of the weather across points east
of the Mississippi. A weak upper trough was found over WI and IL,
pushing east. Ahead of this trough an area of clouds were seen
across Indiana, while water vapor showed subsidence in the wake of
the trough over IA/IL and the southern plains. Winds were light to
calm across central Indiana dew points were in the upper 40s or
lower 50s.
Today and Tonight...
More above normal temperatures and more sunshine is expected across
Central Indiana today. Weak ridging aloft is expected to push across
Central Indiana today as the clouds and upper trough over the area
depart early this morning. This will lead to a mostly sunny day and
continued warm temperatures. The surface high pressure system to the
east will continue to provide a warm an southerly flow of air to
Central Indiana, allowing highs to reach the middle 70s and a few
upper 70s. Time heights and forecast soundings show a dry column
today and tonight with subsidence in play.
Thursday and Friday....
West to southwest flow is expected to be in place on Thursday,
transitioning to a upper ridge on Friday. Little to no forcing
dynamics are in expected to pass on Thursday. The upper ridge looks
to protect Indiana from any forcing on Friday. Meanwhile at the
surface, a cold front will drop out of the upper midwest on Thursday
afternoon and stall over Central Indiana. This really is a the tail
of the front extending well into Quebec and there is little forcing
or moisture associated with it, as it is more of a cusp between two
high pressure systems. Forecast soundings through this period show a
few clouds on Thursday night, but never come close to saturation.
Thus more dry and warm weather will be expected. Southwest flow
ahead of the front on Thursday will allow for highs to reach the
upper 70s to around 80 on Thursday, with cooler values expected in
the wake of the front for Friday.
Saturday through Tuesday...
The upper pattern during this time suggests upper ridging over the
plains on Saturday, pushing through Indiana on Sunday and Monday
before reaching the east coast by Tuesday. As the flow become more
southwesterly on the windward side of the ridge on Sunday through
Tuesday, models suggest waves of upper forcing embedded within the
flow pushing toward Indiana. Furthermore, Isentropic surfaces show
an ongoing pattern of broad lift. Within the lower levels, high
pressure is suggested to over the eastern Great Lakes and Middle
Atlantic states on Saturday and Sunday before pushed off the coast
for Monday and Tuesday. The lower level east or southeasterly flow
will allow for an overrunning setup on Saturday through Monday. By
Tuesday, a deeper low pressure system over the southern plains is
suggested to set up allowing an associated warm front to reside over
Central IL and Indiana. Best chances for rain at this time look to
be Sunday, Sunday Night and Tuesday, but with all these ingredients
in place through this period, smaller chances cannot be ruled out
yet on late Saturday and Monday. Due to the cloud cover and
precipitation during the period, expect lows in the 50s, but highs
mainly reaching only the mid to upper 60s. Normal high temperatures
for this time of year is in the upper 50s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 606 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Impacts:
- VFR conditions are expected this TAF period.
Discussion:
GOES19 shows a wave of upper clouds associated with an upper trough
pushing east and exiting Indiana. A small area of AC as seen on
GOES19 will push across the LAF through 14Z, but otherwise unlimited
cigs and continued VFR conditions are expected today.
Ridging aloft today along with surface high pressure settled east of
Indiana will result in more dry weather for Indiana. Forecast
soundings through the day suggest a dry column and little to no
cloud cover is seen upstream in the wake of the departing mid and
high clouds. Thus VFR.
Overall, no significant changes in the ongoing TAFs.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 6:06 AM EDT---------------
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