CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 1:07 AM EDT320
FXUS61 KCLE 280507
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
107 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures and dry weather, aside from
isolated rain showers Thursday night, will continue through
Saturday.
2) Rain chances return Sunday and into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure displaced just to our north will gradually drift
eastward toward the east coast on Wednesday and Thursday.
Southerly flow on the backside of the departing high will bring
well above normal temperatures (highs in the 70s, lows in
40s/50s), potentially challenging record high temperatures on
Thursday (see climate section below).
A low pressure system located well to the north near the Georgian
Bay will bring a cold front across the area Thursday night.
Moisture will be severely lacking and weak forcing will limit
rain potential, with only isolated rain showers expected
Thursday night. Rain chances are bit higher (40-50%) in Erie, PA
where Lake Erie may provide a bit more low-level
moisture/convergence.
High pressure builds back in Friday and Saturday, and ushering
"cooler" but still above normal temperatures with highs in the
60s and lows in the 40s/50s.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
As high pressure departs to the east, broad isentropic lift
brings rain chances back Sunday and into early next week.
Ensemble QPF mean calls for around 0.25" with very low
probabilities of an isolated 1", which means this rain won't be
very impactful. However, long-range ensemble guidance is hinting
at a potential pattern shift with rain chances continuing next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
High pressure to the northeast will allow for VFR conditions to
continue. Some high clouds will continue through the region this
morning but will quickly fade today. East flow will be favored
overnight given the high pressure position. Winds will shift to
the south and southwest later today with the system moving
southeast through New England. With highs expected in the 70s
next to a 60 degree Lake Erie and a weak pressure gradient over
the region, a modified lake breeze may develop for KERI and KCLE
this afternoon.
Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible on Sunday with rain showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Northeast to east winds 10-15 knots will continue today with wave
heights 1-3 ft decreasing to 1 ft by tonight. High pressure
returns Wednesday as winds become light and variable. Southerly
to southwesterly winds increase to 10-15 knots Wednesday night
into Thursday before become northwest and northerly Thursday
night following a cold frontal passage. There may be a brief
period of 2-4 waves Thursday morning, especially in the central
basin. Otherwise, high pressure brings light and variable winds
on Friday, becoming easterly by Saturday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
We are forecast to be within a few degrees of record warmth on
Thursday. Here are the record high temperatures for our six
climate sites on October 29th:
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
10-29 79(2024) 79(1922) 78(2024) 77(1900) 77(2024) 77(2024)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Saunders
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 1:07 AM EDT---------------
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