LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 6:56 AM EDT207
FXUS63 KLMK 241056
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
656 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather continues through next Friday. Expect chilly nights
and warm afternoons. Patchy fog will be possible each morning,
mainly in river valleys.
* The next significant chance for widespread rainfall is not
expected until the first few days of November (11/1-2).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
This Morning through the Weekend...
It is another clear and calm morning across the region as the
influence of broad sfc high pressure and upper level ridging
continues to bring quiescent weather across much of the eastern
CONUS. Typical ridge-valley and urban-rural differences in
temperatures are observed, with readings ranging from the upper 30s
to the low 50s at this hour. The main thing we're watching through
mid morning will be the development of patchy fog in valleys and
near bodies of water where dewpoint depressions will be lowest.
Patchy frost also can't be ruled out in the coldest spots; however,
coverage should be limited so no headlines are anticipated.
Outside of patchy valley fog development, no significant weather is
expected this weekend. Pleasant fall weather is expected to continue
as high pressure east of the Appalachians and upper ridging over the
Mississippi Valley continue to exert their influence, bringing mild
and dry conditions to central KY and southern IN. As the upper ridge
gets nudged slightly eastward through the weekend, marginal rises in
1000-850 mb thicknesses should support temperatures trending a
degree or so above persistence each day, with highs generally in the
low-to-mid 70s. Large diurnal temperature swings should also
continue, with temps dropping into the 40s in most areas each night.
Next Week through the end of October...
Blocking high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will keep mean
synoptic-scale troughing over the western CONUS through early next
week, with upper ridging and sfc high pressure continuing to support
dry weather across the region. A few shortwave disturbances may try
to eject along the top of the eastern US ridge; however, they should
be fairly moisture-starved and would be expected to bring little
more than a few extra clouds during the mid-week period. As a
result, dry weather is expected to persist through all of next week,
with recent global model guidance trending downward for rain chances
late next week. Temperatures should be relatively consistent from
day-to-day next week, and should be above average overall.
This extended stretch of rain-free weather will lead to increasing
precipitation deficits for both the month of October and
meteorological fall (since Sep 1st). Worsening drought conditions
are likely where they currently exist, and the spatial extent of
drought will likely increase over the coming 7-10 days.
The next chance of rain on the horizon arrives Halloween weekend,
though only about 20% of GEFS/EPS solutions show rain on Halloween.
Better chances for rain should hold off until the first few days of
November, when a stronger system may move across the Ohio Valley
(forecast confidence medium, stay tuned for more details next week).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 655 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
As long as patchy fog does not develop over the next 1-2 hours at
HNB, VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the current
TAF period. There is some signal for patchy fog Sunday morning at
LEX/RGA; however, confidence in this possibility is too low to
include in the forecast at this time.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CSG
AVIATION...CSG
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 6:56 AM EDT---------------
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