LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 2:47 PM EDT696
FXUS63 KLMK 231847
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
247 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Patchy frost will be possible Saturday morning, mainly in
sheltered rural areas.
* Dry weather continues through next Friday. Expect chilly nights
and warm afternoons. Patchy fog will be possible each morning,
mainly in river valleys.
* The latest forecast suggest our next measurable rain chance
coming in around Sunday/Monday 11/1-11/2.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
It's another tranquil day across the region with clear skies and
temperatures in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Combination of
surface and upper level ridging will keep our quiet weather going
for the next 7-8 days.
On the synoptic scale, a very blocky upper level pattern remains in
place across the CONUS with negative height anomalies over the
western US and positive height anomalies across the east. This
blocky flow pattern will continue this weekend and through much of
next week. By mid-late next week, the multi-model consensus
suggests that the pattern will deamplify and we'll start to see
disturbances start to move across the country. The first of these
perturbations will pass by late Wed/Thu. However, the atmosphere
across our area will remain bone dry and no precipitation is
expected through at least Friday.
Sensible weather can be summed up with sunny days and clear nights
through the middle of next week. With the passing disturbances we
may see a little more cloud cover by late next week. With a
relatively dry airmass in place, we will see large diurnal swings in
temperatures. Daytime highs will warm into the lower to middle 70s
with overnight lows in the 40s. A few of our cooler/more sheltered
valleys could see upper 30s again this weekend, though overnight
minimums will likely start to warm gradually through next week.
Looking ahead, our next chance of measurable rain looks to hold off
until late next weekend. The multi-model consensus shows a split
flow pattern developing with a fairly strong trough axis moving
through the Plains and towards the Ohio Valley. Moisture from the
remnants of tropical cyclone Victor in the east Pacific may get
entrained into the flow ahead of the trough. As of this writing,
the early Halloween forecast continues to look dry, but we may see
showers advancing across the region by Sunday 11/1.
Experimental signal analysis from early October has been focusing on
the 11/2-3 period for a strong signal passage. The latest synoptic
guidance agrees with this as well with potentially strong cold front
pushing through the region. Wind fields with this system look to be
quite strong, though instability remains in question. However, it
would not surprise me to see a band of strong storms come through
with this front along with a brief cool down in temps.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening with a light
northeast wind. Winds should remain in the 5-8 knot range. Winds
will go light/variable overnight. Probably will see some fog again
over at KHNB between 24/08-12Z.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 2:47 PM EDT---------------
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