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294 FXUS64 KLIX 201834AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA134 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 135 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026- Conditions will remain somewhat favorable for the development of fires through the remainder of this week and into the weekend due to low humidity and drought/abnormally dry conditions across most of the area.&&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Friday night)Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026Overall, the pattern through the week will not change much.Initially, we remain in dry northwesterly flow aloft, which takinga look outside the clear skies represents this patternbeautifully. There is a ridge starting to nudge eastward fromnorthern portions of Mexico to south Texas. As this feature movescloser, daytime highs will gradually increase through late weekwith this upper high moving closer. With surface high pressurealso trying to build into the region, surface winds will remainlight, which is great news from a fire weather perspective. RHvalues are near critical values especially southwest Mississippiand northern Florida Parishes. However, lackluster winds arekeeping us from needed RFWs. That said, through the week therewill still be a few fires likely breakout during the afternoon,but again with lackluster winds controlling them should be a biteasier with only limited spread. (Frye) &&.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Monday night)Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026The long term starts with the region still under dry northerlyflow aloft on the eastern periphery of an elongated upper ridge over the ArkLaTex/Red River Valley. This will promote the ongoing pattern from the short term period...dry conditions. Even drier during the afternoon due to stronger surface heating and mixing. And also continued mostly above average temperatures given the proximity of the highest heights. By this point, low level flow looks to start increasing out of the east as pressure gradient across much of the region begins to tighten with a surface low developing off the southeast Florida Coast. This will need to be watched going into the long term as dry conditions (RH and antecedent conditions) could lead to enhanced fire danger where the winds are the strongest. The synoptic pattern begins to changeat the ridge breaks down as an upper level trough begins to dig over the central plains right at the period ends early Tuesday morning. (Frye) &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026VFR conditions will persist through the cycle. Winds will be at orless than 10kts from mainly the east through Wednesday afternoon.(Frye) &&.MARINE...Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026High pressure will remain centered well off to the north through the workweek continuing the easterly flow over the northern Gulf.Winds are slowly relaxing with offshore winds expected to remain elevated through early tomorrow. Exercise caution headlines will remain necessary across the outer waters through tonight. Conditions should become more benign with time as winds easing below headline criteria across all waters. With persistent easterly flow, seas will remain elevated as an easterly swell develops. (Frye) &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...RDFLONG TERM....RDFAVIATION...RDFMARINE...RDF
