LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 3:44 PM EDT276
FXUS63 KLMK 221944
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
344 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
* River valley fog is possible tonight, with isolated areas of
dense river valley fog possible.
* Patchy frost will be possible early Friday and Saturday mornings,
mainly in sheltered rural areas.
* Dry weather and consistent temperatures are expected through next
Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Its another beautiful day across southern Indiana and central
Kentucky, with current temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s and
mostly clear skies. A broad area of surface high pressure extends
off to our north, as well as a sturdy upper-level ridge that is
centered over the central CONUS. Northwesterly flow aloft continues
to persist, allowing dry air to remain in place. Daytime mixing has
allowed RH values to drop into the lower 30% range, with some places
getting into the 20s. This trend will continue through at least the
end of the workweek while northwesterly flow remains. While we are
able to mix out well during the daytime hours, decent radiational
cooling will allow overnight temperatures to drop to near or below
normal for this time of year. Lows in the upper 30s to low 40s are
forecast tonight, allowing for patchy frost to develop in low-lying
rural areas. Additionally, there will be the potential for fog to
develop tonight, though the persistence of dry air over the region
should keep this confined to river valleys most prone to fog
development.
This stretch of wonderful weather will continue through the weekend
and into next week as the broad area of surface high pressure
persists over the region. The area of surface high pressure will
further build this weekend, extending to the south and east as it
does so. Meanwhile, the upper-level ridge will slowly shift eastward
over time, with the axis of the ridge moving over the region by
early next week. While there may be some subtle wind direction
shifts as these features shift, the overall forecast remains fairly
consistent across the region. Highs through the end of the forecast
period will be in the 70s, with lows in the upper 30s/low 40s
through Saturday, and broadly in the 40s through next Thursday.
Our next chance for appreciable rainfall still remains uncertain,
with some spread in solutions showing up in deterministic and
ensemble guidance. Models are picking up on a weak front moving
through the Ohio Valley during the middle parts of next week, though
the antecedent dry air over the region could limit the potential for
rain. LREF guidance only shows a 10-15% chance for rain during the
Wednesday-Thursday timeframe, so chances are likely low with that
feature. Chances do increase some (20-30%) beyond the end of the
forecast period on Halloween, but the uncertainty in model guidance
right now does not give much confidence in highlighting a solid
potential for decent rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds
this afternoon will be out of the NNE at 5-10 kt, diminishing after
sunset. Winds will shift to more of an easterly direction Thursday
night, with speeds getting up to around 7 kt by the end of the TAF
period. Patchy valley fog is possible tonight, though confidence was
too low to include in any of the TAFs.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BEN
AVIATION...BEN
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 3:44 PM EDT---------------
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