PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 6:22 PM CDT335
FXUS63 KPAH 212322
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
622 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of dense fog will continue late overnight into the
morning hours near bodies of water.
- Generally clear and temperate conditions will remain through
the weekend.
- A small chance of a shower exists early next week, though
confidence is low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
An UL omega block has been established, with our CWA on the
eastern edge of the 250 mb ridge as of 16z. As such, high
surface pressure will be dominant until Monday at the earliest,
leaving generally cloudless skies and seasonable, if not
slightly above average, temperatures. Tuesday, long-range
guidance suggests weak FROPA associated with the easterly
progression of the UL trough, but vorticity and frontogenesis
values are low, and 250 mb flow is only weakly perturbed. GFS
and ECMWF 500 mb relative humidity prog <40%, so chances of
widespread precipitation are minimal. A brief shower or two
cannot be ruled out though, especially Tuesday morning in
western parts of our coverage area.
Given weak surface flow, patchy areas of dense radiation fog
are possible near bodies of water and in surrounding low-lying
areas overnight through the morning. Widely scattered clouds
tomorrow morning will not hinder the suns ability to quickly
erode this fog, so expect the fog threat to be eliminated by 15z
tomorrow.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Another calm and mainly clear night is expected. Could see some
shallow fog develop across portions of the area closer to
sunrise (particularly at CGI and OWB based on yesterday).
Otherwise VFR conditions expected through the end of the period.
Winds will be mainly calm overnight, and will pick up slightly
tomorrow morning and afternoon out of the northeast at around 6
kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AJW/DWS
AVIATION...HICKFORD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 6:22 PM CDT---------------
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