JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 1:55 AM EDT202
FXUS63 KJKL 210555 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
155 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather with mainly clear skies, mild days, and chilly
nights will persist into early next week.
- Light, patchy frost may develop early this morning and again
late tonight in sheltered valleys away from lakes, rivers, and
larger creeks.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 135 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.
UPDATE Issued at 1103 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
Ridge temperatures are running notably milder than valleys (about
a 15 deg F spread currently), and based on MOS guidance and obs
from last night, have raised the min temp forecast for ridges just
a bit.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure remains
centered to the north between southwest Quebec and Southeast
Ontario. There is good agreement that this will continue to build
toward the Northeast US. This surface high will help keep the
weather quiet through the short-term period. This afternoon we are
seeing an upper level wave riding through parts of Kentucky and
this has mainly helped to generate a few high clouds. Outside of
this feature, expect the clear skies and calm weather to be the
story. This will help drop overnight lows into the upper 30s to
lower 40s, with some potential for Valley fog and/or patchy frost
once again tonight. Wednesday, We will remain under the influence
of surface high pressure to the northeast. It looks similar to
today with sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s to
lower 70s across eastern Kentucky. This will lead to another night
of clear and calm conditions which will once again promote mainly
river valley fog Wednesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
Tranquil weather looks to continue through the long term period,
and with a fairly stagnant pattern in place, weather will change
very little from day to day. Aloft, a closed low will initially be
located off the coast of the Northeast, with midlevel troughing
over the eastern US; meanwhile, a strong and expansive ridge will
sit over the central CONUS. Over the course of the period, this
trough will gradually break down, allowing the ridge to expand
eastward closer to our area, though eastern Kentucky still looks
to be under the influence of ridging through early next week.
Thus, at the surface, models are in good agreement that high
pressure will dominate, keeping weather uneventful through the
forecast period. With such a dry air mass in place, even clouds
will be hard to come by through Saturday. Thus, expect plenty of
sunshine and high temperatures near average in the upper 60s and
low 70s. Each night, clear skies and a weak pressure gradient will
favor the development of ridge valley temperatures splits,
accompanied by typical valley fog. MOS guidance suggests that lows
will fall into the upper 30s in sheltered valleys and the low 40s
in most other locations, and this seems reasonable given this
pattern.
By early next week, a few clouds do look to return, associated
with increasing atmospheric moisture as the ridge expands eastward
and midlevel flow shifts from northerly to westerly. North of the
area, a trough will attempt to dig into the Midwest; however, our
persistent ridge will prevent this trough from pushing into our
area, even as it flattens a bit. At the surface, an area of low
pressure associated with this trough will translate east into
Quebec, with a cold front extending through the Great Lakes
region. However, given the upper level pattern and persistent
surface high pressure, this front is not expected to make it into
Kentucky by the end of the period. Model spread does increase by
Tuesday, with some disagreement regarding how quickly the ridge
breaks down. Even so, the most favored outcome at this time is yet
another pleasant fall day, with PoPs only peaking in the very low
single digits.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
Fog will bring IFR or worse conditions in many river valley
locations early this morning, but it is not expected to affect any
TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions with clear skies and light
winds will prevail through the aviation period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 1:55 AM EDT---------------
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