IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 6:46 AM EDT460
FXUS63 KIND 211046
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
646 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry yet pleasant fall weather will prevail through this weekend
- Light winds and partly/mostly clear skies will oversee above
normal temperatures
&&
.DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Fair and remarkably quiescent autumn weather to continue over
central Indiana into early next week. Main parties responsible for
this pattern's consistency will be recent broad surface ridge that
will continue to occupy much of the eastern half of the continent,
around its center near southeastern Ontario...and a corresponding
H500 ridge that is progged to build north over central North America
by Friday before likely shrinking back to the Midwest/OH Valley by
Monday. A distant yet also noteworthy feature will be early winter
storm tracking into Hudson Bay this weekend...although lower
confidence in how potent or quickly any subsequent polar air mass
would reach Indiana.
Mainly clear skies and light winds will continue to prevail, with
seasonably low dewpoints and abundant sunshine promoting diurnal
ranges nearing 30 degrees for most locations. While modest, overall
northwest flow aloft ahead of the building H500 ridge will advect a
few small weaknesses across the Midwest with occasional batches of
cirrus. However, most impactful weather for the remaining workweek
will be patchy overnight/early morning fog which should most notably
feature quick changes in visibility near rivers, creeks and valleys.
Often calm/variable surface winds should exhibit light organized
northerly flow for a few afternoon hours today. More typical light
breezes to around 10 mph are progged for afternoons Thursday to
Saturday as flow veers from NE to SE from ridge center sliding to
our east.
Trailing cold front out of the Canadian system to stall near a Quad
Cities-Detroit line early next week, as remnant and now stacked
ridge maintains dry and mild weather over the CWA. Best chances for
any rain amid this continued dry pattern will then be at the very
end of the period, with actually decent model agreement on the quasi-
stationary boundary drifting across the CWA around the Tuesday
timeframe. Although, chances for any moderate/heavy rainfall would
be very low as a huge upper ridge over AK/west. Canada directs any
better forcing north of the Great Lakes.
Temperatures through the period to range from 40s to low 70s most
days under H850 temperatures around 10 degrees Celsius. Slightly
warmer days possible this weekend as upper ridge axis slides across
the region...before greater chances of a return to seasonably chilly
conditions for the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 643 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Impacts:
- MVFR/worse visibility possible to 13Z today outside of KIND
Discussion:
MVFR or worse visibility is possible in BR/FG through 13Z at
outlying terminals, and especially KHUF.
VFR conditions to otherwise continue into overnight Wednesday
near central Indiana terminals as large surface ridge drifts
over the eastern CONUS. Mainly clear skies and often calm/variable
winds should include a few hours of north-northeast flow under 7KT
this afternoon.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...AGM
DISCUSSION...AGM
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 6:46 AM EDT---------------
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