IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 2:31 PM EDT974
FXUS63 KIND 201831
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
231 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry yet pleasant fall weather will prevail through this weekend
- Light winds and partly/mostly clear skies will oversee near to
slightly above normal temperatures
&&
.DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Quiet weather is expected through the next seven days as surface
high pressure remains dominant across the region. Guidance is in
good agreement through the end of the week, showing upper ridging
amplifying as it builds eastward across the region. Large scale
subsidence will continue to keep the forecast dry. A weak cold front
may push in from the northeast Thursday Night into Friday. The
boundary appears very weak with temperatures only expected to drop a
few degrees at most.
Temperatures will slightly warm over the weekend due to return flow
as surface high pressure shifts east of central Indiana. Highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s Friday should warm into the low-mid 70s by
Sunday. Long range guidance begins to diverge regarding the upper
level pattern towards the end of the weekend. A southern stream
wave will likely get pulled northward and absorbed into the
northern stream trough. Models differ on the overall evolution of
these two features which leads to greater uncertainty in the extended
forecast.
A cold front associated with the northern stream trough should
eventually move through central Indiana around the early to
middle of next week, but confidence on specific details such as
timing remain limited. There also appears to be a non-zero chance
for light precipitation from the approaching boundary. Some
guidance depicts a narrow band of sufficient moisture surging
north ahead of the boundary and weak forcing supporting the
potential. These solutions remain the outlier though with most
guidance suggesting the limited moisture return will not be enough
to overcome lingering dry air. The forecast remains completely dry
for the time being until guidance becomes better aligned. Once
the front eventually moves through, a cooler trend towards
seasonal temperatures can be expected.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Impacts:
- Brief MVFR vis in fog possible late tonight into Wednesday morning
Discussion:
Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the period as
surface high pressure remains in control. MVFR vis cannot be ruled
out late tonight into Wednesday morning at the outlying TAF sites
from patchy fog. Confidence is too low at this time to include the
potential for fog. Generally light/variable winds are expected
through the period. Expect mostly E/ESE flow through tonight when
winds are not variable.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Melo
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 2:31 PM EDT---------------
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