MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 6:16 PM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...929
FXUS64 KMOB 192316
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
616 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
- Moderate to strong northeast winds will may create hazardous
conditions for small craft well offshore through this evening,
and again over most of the marine area Friday night into this
weekend.
- A High Risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches is in
effect through tonight.
- Dry conditions continue through the forecast period.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Forecast on track, with no updates planned at this time.
/16
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
A highly amplified pattern evolves over the CONUS through
Wednesday and Thursday as a large upper trof develops over the
easternmost states down into the eastern Gulf and a large upper
ridge builds over the central states. The upper ridge advances
into the eastern states this weekend as the upper trof moves into
the far western Atlantic, just off the East Coast. A surface
ridge generally persists over the eastern states through much of
the period, with the pressure gradient tightening over the extreme
southeast states this weekend as a surface low develops in the
vicinity of the Bahamas. Deep layer moisture remains limited
through the period and have continued with dry conditions through
this weekend and early next week. Highs on Tuesday will be in
the mid 70s to lower 80s then trend to mostly range from the upper
70s to lower 80s by Wednesday, with similar values following
through Monday of next week. Lows tonight range from the mid 40s
well inland to the mid 50s at the coast, and lows each night
through Sunday night will be similar, although well inland lows
may be closer to mid/upper 40s. A High Risk of rip currents
continues through tonight, then a moderate risk follows for
Tuesday and Tuesday night. A low risk of rip currents develops
Wednesday into Wednesday night and continues into Thursday. A
moderate risk of rip currents is expected for Friday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
VFR conditions expected through the forecast with northeasterly
winds less than 10 knots, around 10 knots along the coast.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1113 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly winds will slowly
decrease through tonight. Small craft should exercise caution well
offshore this afternoon into this evening. A light to moderate
northeasterly flow will prevail beginning Tuesday, then a moderate
to strong easterly to northeasterly flow develops Friday night. A
Small Craft Advisory will likely become necessary from Friday
night on into the weekend. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 51 77 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 54 77 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 55 77 57 79 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 44 77 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 45 78 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 43 75 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 47 77 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Tuesday for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 6:16 PM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...---------------
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