MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 6:16 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...981
FXUS64 KMOB 181116
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
616 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
- Strong northeast winds will persist over the Gulf and area bays
and sounds with continued hazardous conditions for mariners.
- An elevated wildfire risk will persist on Sunday due to low
relative humidity values and continued dry conditions across
southeast Mississippi into southwest Alabama.
- A High Risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches tonight into
early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Forecast remains on track; no updates needed. /96
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
A deep upper trough will persist over the eastern half of the
country as an upper level low pressure system cuts off over the
Mid Atlantic and intensifies. At the surface, high pressure
continues to build over the north central Gulf coast with
northerly winds over land continuing to gradually diminish in
intensity. Dry conditions will persist through the end of this
weekend with a continuation of below average temperatures. Highs
will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, with overnight low
temperatures ranging from the middle 40s over interior sections of
southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, to the upper 40s
along the I-10 corridor and lower to middle 50s along the
immediate coast.
The mid and upper level low pressure system and associated
troughing will move very slowly eastward before stalling early
next week as the low get cutoff from the polar jet stream which
lifts north into southern Canada. Meanwhile, over our area mid and
upper level heights rise and build temporarily eastward over the
north-central Gulf Coast early next week. This will support a
continuation of dry conditions along with gradually modifying
temperatures. Diurnal temperature spreads will increase with the
dry airmass in place with high temperatures rising into the middle
to upper 70s areawide by Tuesday. Low temperatures will still drop
to below average values with lower to middle 40s over interior
areas to the lower and middle 50s along the coast.
Another mid level shortwave trough will drop southeast across the
Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South Wednesday night. This
feature will help to deepen the longwave troughing along the East
Coast. As far as our local weather, there will be very little in
the way of sensible changes with the passage of this shortwave.
Temperatures will remain unchanged through the end of next week
with highs still reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows
ranging from the middle 40s interior areas, to middle 50s along
the coast. Moisture levels will remain limited through next week
so dry weather will continue through the entire forecast period.
A High Risk of rip currents will continue through Monday night
before gradually falling to a Moderate Risk Tuesday and Low Risk
Tuesday night through the remainder of next week. Please remain
out of the water until the rip current risk drops on Tuesday.
/JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.
Breezy northeasterly winds are expected to continue throughout the
day today, with gusts potentially reaching 20-25 knots late this
morning into the afternoon hours. Winds are expected to lessen by
the evening hours. /96
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Strong northeasterly winds will continue across the marine areas,
with frequent gusts over gale force to persist over the offshore
20-60nm zones into midday Sunday. Therefore, the gale warning will
be extended through 18z Sunday. Elsewhere, winds remain strong
enough to keep Small Craft Advisories in place. By Sunday
afternoon, all winds should drop below gale force with Small Craft
Advisory conditions continuing for the open Gulf waters and Small
Craft Exercise Caution over bays and sounds. Small Craft Advisory
winds will persist over the open Gulf waters through 18z Monday
before diminishing over all marine areas Monday afternoon and
evening. The strong winds will keep hazardous seas in place
through the rest of this weekend and into early next week before
gradually diminishing. /JLH
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1040 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026
Dry conditions will keep afternoon relative humidity values
between 28-35% on Sunday afternoon. Surface winds will continue to
weaken as compared to early in the weekend and this will keep
conditions below Red Flag Warning criteria. Transport winds will
be generally northeasterly Sunday between 5-10 knots and between
4-8 knots Monday from the northeast. Dispersion indices will be
generally good both Sunday and Monday each afternoon. /JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 72 49 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 72 54 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 71 56 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 70 46 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 72 44 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 68 45 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 69 48 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655.
Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ670-675.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT
Tuesday for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 6:16 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...---------------
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