JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 2:10 AM EDT434
FXUS63 KJKL 100610 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
210 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Generally dry and mild weather continues through sunrise.
- Breezy and rainy conditions envelop us this weekend as a strong
system, including the remnants of Hurricane Isaias (currently
moving north through southern Alabama), moves northeast across
the region.
- Southeasterly wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are expected over
the higher terrain near the KY-VA border from this afternoon
through late tonight.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 140 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
No significant changes were made to the forecast through the rest
of the night as we await the arrival of any impacts from the
remnants of hurricane Isaias later this morning. For this update
it was mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for
the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the
NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and
zones.
UPDATE Issued at 820 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
Some of the deeper southeastern valleys have decoupled and dropped
into the upper 50s to around 60 degree range while ridgetop and
more exposed locations were mainly in the mid to upper 60s as
anticipated. Overall, the current forecast is on track with no
changes needed at this juncture.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 423 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
Temperatures range from the mid 70s to lower 80s this afternoon
across eastern Kentucky under sunshine filtered by high clouds. Dew
points in the 40s to low 50s are resulting in humidity values in
the 25 to 40 percent range for most of the area. The dry and warm
weather is courtesy of ~1024 mb high pressure stationed over the
Northern Panhandle of West Virginia. Meanwhile, those aforementioned
high clouds are a plume of upper-level moisture streaming north
and east out of Hurricane Isaias, which is churning northeast
toward the Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle.
The 12Z model suite remains in good agreement, showing surface high
pressure remaining the dominant player in our weather through late
tonight as it retreats to the northeast in advance of Isaias. Thus,
while clouds aloft will both thicken and lower with time, it will
remain dry overnight. Temperatures should drop off quickly with sunset,
especially in valleys, but a tightening surface pressure gradient
should begin to disturb the nocturnal inversion, helping hold
temperatures steady or even causing them to rise slightly during
the second half of the night. By daybreak Saturday, many of the
REF/HREF members have the outer bands of Isaias on our southern
doorstep (the KY/TN border). However, the storm will almost certainly
be weakening rapidly by that time as it is sheared apart by mid-
latitude westerlies. Additionally, the incoming rain bands will be
fighting lingering dry air in the lower to mid-levels across
eastern Kentucky and also southeasterly downslope rain-shadowing
effects due to the Great Smoky Mountains/Blue Ridge. Thus, it is
likely to take much of the daytime hours (until late afternoon or
early evening) for the leading edge of any steadier rainfall to
reach the I-64 corridor.
A BUFKIT analysis supports stronger flow aloft mixing down in most
locations on the leading edge of the rain bands during initial
top-down saturation. This is when most model soundings are supportive
of gustier winds up to 35 mph across most of eastern Kentucky, with
even stronger gusts over the higher terrain near the KY-VA border.
As the low-levels are saturated, wet bulb cooling will result in
most valley locations seeing calmer winds under a low-level
inversion, limiting the overall mix-down of strongest winds
around the center of former Hurricane Isaias. The notable
exception is over the high terrain along the KY-VA border where
flow aloft will not only be strong (50 to 60 kts at 850 hPa) and
orthogonal to the prominent mountain ridges, but will also reside
in a stable layer up to around 800 hPa which will be topped by a
rapid decrease in wind speed higher aloft. This sets the stage for
favorable mountain wave ducting conditions - leaving the main
question being whether the low-level jet will be strong enough to
generate a breaking wave on the downwind (northwestern) side of
the taller mountain ridges. The highest risk of localized mountain
wave winds would be immediately downwind of Big Black Mountain
into the Cumberland/Eolia areas, then downwind of White Rocks
(Cumberland Mountain) and Log Mountain near Frakes/Chenoa, and
also immediately downwind of other prominent SW-NE oriented ridges.
A Wind Advisory has been issued for Harlan, Letcher, and Bell
counties to account for this concern. Localized mountain wave
activity cannot be ruled out along Pine Mountain into the Dorton
area of Pike County as well, but it should be much more isolated
and forecaster confidence is lower; thus, Pike County has been
placed under an SPS for now and will be monitored as the system
evolves. An SPS has also been issued for the remainder of the JKL
CWA to address initial gusty winds that should occur with the
onset of rainfall during the day on Saturday.
As mentioned previously, downslope winds will cut heavily into this
system's rainfall potential for our area, with at least the
eastern half of the CWA presently favored to stay under an inch of
rainfall due to rain-shadowing effects. Banding should be more
resilient over the western half of the CWA on Saturday, however,
and the post-tropical low's occluded front could help keep
rainfall more persistent over the western half of the area
Saturday night. Thus, rainfall totals on the order of 0.5 to 1.5
inches are likely, though isolated higher amounts nearing 3 inches
cannot be ruled out in a few spots. Given the dry antecedent
conditions, the flash flood threat even in the western portions of
the CWA remains low, and WPC has maintained a Marginal ERO for
locations west of US-23. Model soundings do support enough
instability for thunder at times, but strong low-level stability
should mitigate any severe weather threat.
From a more sensible standpoint, dry and quiet weather will continue
this evening and tonight, though clouds will be on the increase. Look
for low temperatures ranging in the 50s for most locations tonight,
with minimums established for many during the first half of the
night. On Saturday, look for showers and light rain to slowly
develop from south to north, reaching the KY-TN border by or
shortly after daybreak and continuing northward to reach Fleming
County by late afternoon or early evening (4 PM to 7 PM EDT). With
the arrival of the leading showers, there is likely to be a
temporary period of gusty southeasterly winds reaching 20 to 35
mph in most places before subsiding. Locally stronger winds are
likely, however, over and adjacent to the highest mountains near
the KY-VA border. It will be noticeably cooler than today with
highs only in the upper 60s south to lower 70s north. For
Saturday night, showers and even a few thunderstorms can be
expected. It will remain a little breezy in most places, with
stronger winds continuing over the higher terrain near the KY-VA
border. It will be mild and damp with low temperatures ranging in
the upper 50s to lower 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 401 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
Our primary feature starting the long term period will continue to
be the remnant low from Hurricane Isaias. The stacked low is
expected to be over or near central KY around dawn on Sunday. By
that time, drier air will be wrapping around and into the system's
weakening circulation, with latest guidance suggesting this drier
slot passing northeast over the JKL forecast area Sunday morning.
Eventual details of timing, track and strength of the remnant low
are not locked in, and that will determine where and when features
affect us. That being the case, the POP remains elevated through the
day on Sunday (even through there may very well be a break in precip
for a time). Have tried to hold the highest (categorical) POP with
the greater moisture still surrounding the remaining core of the
system as it passes through around mid day and afternoon on Sunday.
The strongest winds should be finished by Sunday, and it looks like
there's a lack of deep instability. So, the character of the day
appears to be showery with limited warming.
The circulation should be departing to our northeast by Sunday
evening, with the back edge of the precip forecast to be over the
eastern portion of the JKL forecast area by then. It will probably
end during the night, but a few light showers can't be ruled out yet
on Monday morning over the eastern tip of the state. Transient
ridging then passes over from west to east during the day Monday,
with warm air advection becoming pronounced once the low level
ridging slips past by late in the day. Low level moisture (with
surface dew points in the upper 50s/lower 60s) is expected to linger
in the wake of the tropical system, but very dry air aloft should
make a comeback with the arrival of the mid-upper level ridging.
This keeps us mild and dry at least into the day Tuesday.
After this point, the forecast becomes more uncertain as model
discrepancies come into the picture. The uncertainties initially
involve a cold front moving into the Ohio Valley from the northwest
by late Tuesday, and how much southeastward progress this front
eventually makes. Other issues arise with model differences in the
timing/positioning of a strong upper trough expected to develop
southeastward across the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS at the end
of the week, and its influence on its associated cold front. The
model blend represented in the forecast is very much subject to
change with time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
At the 06Z issuance time, VFR conditions were in place across
eastern Kentucky and at this point, VFR is expected to prevail
through at least 18Z. High clouds will thicken and lower into the
morning, though and eventually, light rain, with the remnants of
Hurricane Isaias, develop for most locations between about 14Z
and 20Z. A few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out between
18Z and the end of the period. Additionally, variable to easterly
and southeasterly winds at generally 5 kts or less will intensify
during the 09Z to 15Z timeframe to around 10 kts with gusts of 15
to 25 kts anticipated. A further increase in easterly to
southeasterly winds to the 7 to 15 kts range and gusts as high as
20 to 30 kts is expected thereafter. Meanwhile, later tonight,
CIGs will fall into the IFR or lower levels amid ongoing rains.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 5 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ087-088-
118.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 2:10 AM EDT---------------
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