LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 6:57 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...810
FXUS63 KLMK 061057
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
657 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Seasonably mild weather will continue today. Many locations will
climb back into the 80s Wednesday through Saturday.
* Remnants of a potential tropical cyclone may bring beneficial
rainfall to the region Sunday and into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026
=== Dry and Warm Through the End of the Week ===
High pressure at the surface and weak flow aloft will bring
continued dry and warm conditions through the end of this week.
Ample mixing this afternoon will help drier air aloft to mix down to
the surface. Dew points are expected to be in the upper 30s and low
40s and highs in the mid-upper 70s. Overnight and into Wednesday,
high pressure will push off to the east and southwesterly flow will
return. This will bring a warmer and slightly more moist airmass
into the region. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s and low
80s. Though deep mixing in the afternoon will help dew points to
drop into the 40s and will bring breezy winds.
Thursday, a decaying cold front will move into the Ohio Valley and
high pressure will build in behind. These features will reinforce
the dry airmass without much of a change in temperatures. We will
continue to see highs in the upper 70s and low 80s through the end
of the week.
=== Weekend: Remnants of a Potential Tropical System ===
On Saturday, high pressure will shift east of the region and
southerly return flow will increase temperatures and moisture over
the region. Aloft, ridging will quickly build and enhance increased
high temperatures.
The National Hurricane Center has outlined AL92 in the Gulf with an
80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next few days.
While there is still uncertainty in the strength of this system and
the interaction with the strong ridging over the Mid-Atlantic / Ohio
Valley, this system may bring remnant energy and moisture into the
lower Ohio Valley. If the low pressure tracks north into the lower
Ohio Valley, we will expect to see plenty of moisture and beneficial
rainfall. There is still quite a bit of spread in QPF totals, since
it is conditional on the track of the tropical system. Though, there
is a 45% chance of exceeding 1 inch of rainfall and a 20% chance of
exceeding 2 inches over southern Kentucky. Over the next few
forecast cycles, more details will become clearer.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 657 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026
VFR conditions will continue through the entire TAF period due to
high pressure. Light northeasterly winds will continue and will
shift to the easterly Tuesday afternoon. Skies will remain mostly
clear through this TAF cycle.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SRW
AVIATION...SRW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 6:57 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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