Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1446 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE110
AWUS01 KWNH 042132
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-050130-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1446
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
531 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Areas affected...Southwest MS & Southeast LA
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 042130Z - 050130Z
Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall could
continue for another 3-4 hours. Hourly rain amounts to 3" are
possible, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.
Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue to percolate near
a front stretching across the region. Precipitable water values
are 2.3-2.6" per GPS data. Effective bulk shear is 25 kts. ML
CAPE is 1000-1500 J/kg. Difluence aloft is being caused by a
strong upper level shortwave near the ArkLaTex. Low-level
east-northeasterlies appear to be occasionally balancing the upper
level west-southwesterly flow, which is leading to a bit of
rainfall efficiency.
The 12z REFS/18z HREF have somewhat different ideas on how long
the convection will hold on, with the REFS showing an earlier time
of dissipation than the HREF. At the moment, the HREF appears to
have a slightly better idea on placement -- though both appear too
far northwest -- so used its horizon. Over the next 3-4 hours,
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue to show
brief backbuilding/training across the region, which could
continue to lead to hourly rain amounts to 3". There should be
some tendency for the convective focus/front to edge southeast
with time, which potentially keeps a flash flood risk for New
Orleans. This heavy rainfall would be most problematic in urban
areas.
Roth
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...
ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 31308992 31178957 30268965 29469021 29219111
29829199 30609122
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1446 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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